I came across a market newsletter that aggregated various comments from investing newsletters. How do you actually apply the following four comments?
“It’s increasingly clear that the primary characteristic of the current marketplace is that there is too much money around, looking for places to put it, perhaps to work, but more evidently to play with. It is reminiscent of one of Fraser’s useful buttons: ‘Money to burn will find a home.’…In sum, this is not a market climate suitable for initiating long-term investment positions, nor is it suitable for speculation…nor for brilliant market timing. Such slow and teasing deterioration requires patience. Better to be a wallflower than a gambler.”
The Mamis Letter
April 3, 2006
“In an environment of global event risk, potential fixed income market turmoil, and deteriorating industry group performance, our advice remains to be defensive.”
The Belkin Report
April 3, 2006
“I believe The Market will continue to groan forward this month, possibly even challenging the old highs. But I don’t think the underlying fundamental, technical, economic, and sentiment factors are in place to sustain it. For that reason, we need to begin the process of rebalancing our portfolios. …I see a flat-to-declining U.S. market ahead. We’ll begin to sell our U.S. market-sensitive issues – even some of those that I still believe in long-term. My plan is to move you more completely into metals, timber, and energy, all of which will move contra to the market in general, as well as to seek some special situations in foreign markets to which the U.S. market correlates poorly.”
Joseph L. Shaefer
“The greenback now looks vulnerable to a breach of 88.00, which would increase the risk profile toward 86.00 and negate the potential for the U.S. dollar to fulfill the previously anticipated upside.”
The Day of Reckoning is NOW for the U.S. Dollar … And It’s Failing!
April 5, 2006
I am not questioning the intelligence of these men. There is a side of me that always like a good market story, but I just don’t see how these kinds of statements can be applied to ‘when to buy’, ‘when to sell’ or ‘how much to buy or sell’.
Note: Joseph L. Shafer, quoted above, responded to this blog post with the following:
Clearly you are unwilling to issue a retraction or explanation for your out-of-context quote no matter how compelling the evidence. We won’t communicate further. I answered your question 3 different ways. I read the article you sent me from 2000 — it sounded suspiciously like what I wrote in my first book 20 years ago. Bottom line: We tell subscribers how many shares of what stocks to buy at what price, when to sell, and at what price. We know it, our peers in the business know it, and our subscribers and clients are wealthier for it. You’ll note on page 10 of Investor’s Edge (R) the words “All rights reserved” and “Copyright.” Do not violate our copyright by quoting us without permission. Bloggers may wish to spread their words indiscriminately but, as professionals in the business, we take infringement of our trademarks &/or copyrighted material very seriously. If you respond, which I do not expect, respond to our Legal Department at email@example.com. Good day, Joseph L. Shaefer, Chairman The Stanford Advisory Group