Hunches and Accuracy

Feedback received:

“…sometimes the “intuitive feelings” are right. Remember Jesse Livermore who had a hunch before the earthquake in San Francisco 1907 and sold big the shares of a railway company? Well, it was definitely an intuitive move. If you observe the markets for long, you develop sort of a sixth sense and you can guess even the weekly moves of stocks, although not 100% accurate. Sometimes hunches are good, but they cannot form a system.”

Intuition can definitely play a role in success. But the word “sometimes” is the problem here. “Sometimes” is not a term you can rely on. How do you quantify it? On top of that, why would it matter if you are 100% accurate or not? Trend followers, and other great traders of other styles, don’t sit around with the goal of being 100% right. Chasing “accuracy” as the Holy Grail is fool’s gold (MP3).

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You might like my 2017 epic release: Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets (Fifth Edition). Revised and extended with twice as much content.