A trend following investment system is a set of rules that tells you how to make consistent investment decisions for above average profit. Our clients, new to pro traders, receive proprietary trend trading strategies, the “nuts and bolts” exact trading processes and rules, assembled and curated from most successful trend traders over the last 40 years. We have taught beginners to professionals how to trade trend following methods on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, metals, grains, futures, ETFs and LEAPs:
- Trend following is for bull, bear and black swan markets.
- Trend following = Fuel (time and money) + Driver (you).
- Trend following overcomes behavioral biases outlined in Daniel Kahneman’s research. Exploiting behavioral biases through financial markets is trend following’s DNA.
- Trend following works on all markets. You are running a process machine that doesn’t specialize in one market alone. You can trade anything now, and should.
- There is no foolproof system. Great trend trading is about skill and luck.
- Trend following applies the scientific method to investing. It goes against the economic orthodoxy of efficient markets.
Note: This is not day trading or high frequency trading (HFT). It is not for those expecting to make millions instantly, or for those who watch CNBC or Bloomberg 24/7. If you mistakenly believe you can predict market direction, trend following is not for you.
“Challenging the status quo has huge upside with far less risk than trusting the system. This truth is available if awake.” –Michael Covel (PDF)
Trend Following™ Premium Flagship Product Materials
You will receive the following research materials with your purchase delivered via text, audio, video and personalized support (FEDEX and digital delivery). You will have precise trend systems you can apply to your account for potential profit–immediately. This offering is only available from Trend Following™.
|Trend Following™ Custom Support (Months)||18||12|
|Trend Following™ Core Systens Trading Manual; 226 pages||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) Manual; 86 pages||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ LEAPs Options Manual; 83 pages||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Single Stock Futures Manual; 56 pages||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Alternate Entries Manual (PDF); 56 pages||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Money Management Manual (PDF); 96 pages||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Additional Trading Systems (3)||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Case Study (PDF); 6 pages||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Wizard DVD: Kevin Bruce||Yes||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Wizard DVD: David Harding||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Wizard DVD: Larry Hite||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Wizard DVD: Salem Abraham||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Trading Coach DVD: Charles Faulkner||Yes|
|Trend Following™ Resources Supplementary CD (See Description Below)||Yes|
|Latest product update: September 2014|
Trend Following™ Premium Flagship Product Benefits
You will receive proprietary Trend Following™ trading systems:
- Classic I Trend System.
- Classic II Trend System.
- Classic III Trend System.
- Stoic Weekly Trend System.
- Note: Risk management “heat” for all systems adjustable.
Proprietary Trend Following™ systems and training provides:
- How to automate your trading.
- What market and how much of a market do you buy or sell at any time.
- When do you buy or sell a market.
- When do you get out of a winning position.
- How do you enter and exit.
- How do you place stops for each and every position.
- How do you adjust stops when trades are winning/losing.
- How do you take a loss to avoid a larger loss.
- How does system expectancy work.
- How do you balance both long and short positions.
- How do you adjust trades for accumulated new profits.
- How do you account for volatility.
- How do you adjust your portfolio during a winning/losing streak.
- How do you adjust risk as your account grows.
- How do you handle profit targets? What do the pros do.
- How do you protect against extreme downside moves.
- How do you adjust your positions for volatility.
- How do you trade when the system dictates.
- How do you eliminate market noise.
- How do you understand the psychological component
- How do you choose a portfolio.
- How do you use risk management (or money management) to maximize your gains.
Our Trend Following™ systems have been reverse engineered to answer:
- How to become a trend millionaire in concrete steps.
- How to deal with volatile returns as a part of life.
- How to ignore bad information.
- How to set up a profit schedule with self-discipline.
- How to trade with the trend and never ignore it.
- How to minimize stress and maximize health.
- How to model the behavior of the great traders.
- How to manage and embrace risk with a patient opportunistic plan.
- How to use a checklist to quantify your trading plan.
- How to learn to trade off of today’s price.
- How to read trends now across commodities, currencies, interest rates and stocks.
- How to avoid buying declining markets.
- How to add to winning trades.
- How to not use price targets or time limits.
- How to know when to stay out of the market.
- How to know when to sell before you ever buy.
- How to prepare, study and practice for each trading or week.
- How to mentally plan for your worst-case scenario at all times.
- How to not watch the markets during the day.
- How to identify a portfolio of markets on a global basis and rank them for selection.
- How to trade with a small account.
You will learn exact money management techniques used by top trend following traders and have the needed practice examples to answer these questions:
- How much to trade at any give time.
- When to increase your position.
- How much to risk.
- How to evaluate total market risk.
- How to diversify your account.
- How to avoid over exposure among markets.
Preserving capital is the goal:
Trend Following™ Support
Your access to our support team, led personally by Michael, will answer 95% of your emailed questions within 24-36 hours. You can learn anywhere: office, home, on the road, it doesn’t matter. You will have access to our client support service for 18 months. Just like your CPA or attorney–the ability to ask questions is built right into the Flagship product. No extra support fees are charged. Some ask: Are there in person or online groups that talk about this strategy? You have our team for support. The amount of misinformation online is overwhelming. It is a minefield. Bottom line: Avoid it.
Additionally, new traders will also receive resources dedicated to foundational level trading basics (i.e. book recommendations, trading issues to consider/avoid, Holy Grails, broker recommendations, background reading, websites to absorb/avoid). These insights give new traders start-up immediate confidence.
This is mental sport, but it is sport that can be learned. Great trend following trading is about putting mathematical odds on your side. It is about finding a consistent edge or expectation with no guesses, hunches or predictions. You will learn exactly to think and trade with precise systems for above average returns. You do not need to be a rocket scientist to be a trend following trader. A long time trader makes the point:
“Please keep in mind the observation of two of my best friends, who are at the peak of their distinguished careers in medicine and medical research. They agree that the two most important discoveries in medical history are penicillin and washing hands (which stopped the spread of infection from one mother to another by the midwives who delivered most babies before 1900). What’s more, my friends counsel, there’s no better advice on how to live longer than to quit smoking and buckle up when driving. The lesson: advice doesn’t have to be complicated to be good.”
Trend Following™ simplicity illustrations:
Trend Following™ Resources Supplementary CD
The Trend Following™ Resources Supplementary CD is an extra compilation of resources designed to give further trend following foundations and background. This invaluable curation gives you access to Michael Covel’s favorite outside resources.
3rd Party Trend Following White Paper/Resources (Flagship Premium Only):
- The trend is your friend? (PDF; 24 pages).
- Babe Ruth (PDF; 4 pages).
- Legend Profile (PDF; 3 pages).
- Legend Profile (PDF; 5 pages).
- Legend Profile (PDF; 1 page).
- Legend Profile (PDF; 5 pages).
- Turtle and hare (PDF; 5 pages).
- Sideways markets (PDF; 3 pages).
- Trend following history (PDF; 17 pages).
- Skill and luck (PDF; 42 pages).
- Risk equalizing (PDF; 8 pages).
- Take a loss (PDF; 2 pages).
- CNBC (PDF; 3 pages).
- Crisis times (PDF; 13 pages).
- Richard Dennis rare (PDF; 6 pages).
- Trend following history (PDF; 8 pages).
- Position sizing (PDF; 29 pages).
- Single stocks (PDF; 4 pages).
- Size matters (PDF; 14 pages).
- Trend following history (PDF; 15 pages).
- Trend following history (PDF; 4 pages).
- Systems (PDF; 9 pages).
- Skew (PDF; 3 pages).
- Speculation (PDF; 23 pages).
- Trend following stocks (PDF; 5 pages).
- Trend following stocks (PDF; 22 pages).
- Drawdown (PDF; 4 pages).
- Process (image; 1 page).
- Trend following history (PDF; 12 pages).
- Market reference (PDF; 53 pages).
- Trend following legend (PDF; 5 pages).
- Trend following legend (PDF; 4 pages).
- Trend following presentation (PDF; 21 pages).
- Trend following drawdowns (PDF; 5 pages).
- Trend following presentation (PDF; 17 pages).
- Trend following presentation (PDF; 21 pages).
- Trend following legend (PDF; 3 pages).
- Trend following legend (PDF; 6 pages).
- Gambling (PDF; 3 pages).
- Money management (PDF; 6 pages).
- Sharpe ratio (PDF; 2 pages).
- Tail risk (PDF; 8 pages).
- Trend following presentation (PDF; 24 pages).
- Trend following presentation (PDF; 13 pages).
- Trend following presentation (PDF; 10 pages).
- A bet (PDF; 1 page).
- Trend following presentation (PDF; 7 pages).
- Trend following presentation (PDF; 129 pages).
- Livermore (PDF; 74 pages).
- Not lucky monkeys (PDF; 5 pages).
- Momentum (PDF; 1 page).
- Casino math (PDF; 12 pages).
- Trend following chart (PDF; 3 pages).
- Money management (PDF; 5 pages).
- Expectations (PDF; 16 pages).
- Risk, reward (PDF; 14 pages).
- Darvas (PDF; 106 pages).
- Parable (PDF; 1 page).
- Momentum (PDF; 10 pages).
- Turtles (PDF; 4 pages).
- Life tips (PDF; 1 page).
- Covel (PDF; 6 pages).
- Covel (PDF; 7 pages).
- Covel (PDF; 3 pages).
3rd Party Trading Psychology White Paper/Resources (Flagship Premium Only):
- No “news” (PDF; 11 pages).
- Incentives, motivation (PDF; 18 pages).
- Booms, busts (PDF; 3 pages).
- Quotations (PDF; 11 pages).
- What matters now (PDF; 82 pages).
- Chaos (images; 55 pages).
- Talent (PDF; 12 pages).
- No predictions (PDF; 4 pages).
- Checklist for traders (PDF; 2 pages).
- Stress (PDF; 49 pages).
- Emotional intelligence (PDF; 42 pages).
- Decision making in times of risk (PDF; 46 pages).
- Pitfalls to avoid (PDF; 7 pages).
- Success and motivation (PDF; 26 pages).
- Neuro-linguistic programming (PDF; 29 pages).
- Goals into results (PDF; 16 pages).
- More decision making for investors (PDF; 20 pages).
3rd Party Trading Economic White Paper/Resources (Flagship Premium Only):
- Austrian introduction (PDF; 6 pages).
- Austrian introduction 2 (PDF; 930 pages).
- Scientific revolution (PDF; 8 pages).
- Free markets in action (PDF; 18 pages).
3rd Party Trading Holy Grails White Paper/Resources (Flagship Premium Only):
- Madness of online forums (PDF; 6 pages).
- Monitor envy (image; 1 page).
- LTCM (PDF; 12 pages).
Supplementary EXCEL Spreadsheets (Flagship Premium Only):
- (5) EXCEL spreadsheets for volatility.
- (5) EXCEL spreadsheets for correlation.
- (4) EXCEL spreadsheets for trading logs.
- (4) EXCEL spreadsheets for risk management.
Supplementary Training Materials (Flagship Premium Only):
- Trend Following™ questions and answers (44 pages).
- Market basics for introduction, orders, speculation, nomenclature, etc. (300 Q/A).
Supplementary Audio Materials (Flagship Premium Only):
- Podcast episodes (275 MP3s).
- Covel introductory overview (10 MP3s).
Supplementary Video Materials (Flagship Premium Only):
- 3rd party trend following video excerpts (14 videos).
- 3rd party video excerpts featuring top trend follower (11 videos).
Questions? Reach out and contact us.
TREND FOLLOWING™ PHILOSOPHY
How best should you invest in the face of uncertainty? How do you best trade market bubbles for profit? Those are the questions to answer. In the last 15 years we have seen major booms and major busts, multiple times. We have seen unprecedented government actions from bailouts to quantitative easing (QE) to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Clearly, markets go up and go down and if you have a proper plan you can aim to make money in both directions regardless of why markets are trending. The Eastern philosopher Alan Watts, while not versed in investing, knew very well how to think about profitable trading (even if unintentional):
The question “What shall we do about it?” is only asked by those who do not understand the problem. If a problem can be solved at all, to understand it and to know what to do about it are the same thing. On the other hand, doing something about a problem which you do not understand is like trying to clear away darkness by thrusting it aside with your hands. When light is brought, the darkness vanishes at once.
Most investors rich or poor do not understand markets. Markets confuse, seduce, bewilder and scare the you know what out of people because at their essence, while markets can make you very rich, they can leave you dead broke. Overcoming that fear (and moving you toward rich) is what trend following attempts to do. Our firm brings the light Alan Watts speaks about to trend following trading, but before explaining how our unique product can help you consider these truths:
- Clarity of purpose is investment success. Eliminating the noise with precise profit rules that adjust to any situation, climate or cycle is the goal. Going on an information diet is part of the plan. Media is irrelevant, toxic to the body, limits understanding, inhibits thinking and manipulates. Annette Simmons said it: “People don’t want more information. They are up to their eyeballs in information. They want faith. Faith in you, your goals, your success, in the story you tell.”
- Systematic and consistent processes (like trend following trading) beat discretionary judgments every time. See video.
- Investment stress is a killer. Multitasking with screens, news and nonstop predictions will fry your brain–guaranteed. Focus on the right task, not every last task. Consider this infographic.
- The religious rituals of the government, media and finance sector are designed to bleed you out dry. Ben Hunt said it smartly: “CNBC really could not care less about the actual content of what is being said. The purpose of CNBC’s game is not to tell you what to think, but how to think, that thinking about investing in terms of some sell-side analyst’s anodyne story about fundamentals or some trader’s breathless story. Why? Because CNBC can create inexpensive content essentially at will to fill this demand, allowing them to sell advertisements. Nothing evil or wrong about this. It’s what for-profit media companies do. But the content they are producing is no less of a theatrical production than the State of the Union address and it needs to be understood as such.”
- Practice is mandatory. View this infographic.
- Trend following does nothing until you have a great move with big profit potential. Patience is paramount. See video.
The authorities in charge don’t want that kind of thinking or action. They don’t want anyone awake:
Those who dominate the educational [system] control who is accepted and who is rejected, not by measure of intelligence or skill, but by their willingness to conform to the establishment ideal. They construct a kind of automaton class, which has been taught not to learn independently, but to parrot propaganda without question. Those of us who do not make the grade are relegated to the role of obliged worshippers; accepting the claims of the professional class as gospel regardless of how incorrect they happen to be. The whole thing is disgustingly inbred (footnote).
Trend following is not a moneymaking system the gatekeepers, the missionaries, want practiced. Trend following eliminates brokers, CNBC, Bloomberg, mutual funds and gurus from your life. It can give you the control (and peace of mind). What is the work around? What is the solution? What is the hack? What is the step-by-step profit blueprint our firm can provide you? First, let’s talk about using a “process”. Consider a non-trading example:
Instead of talking about wins and championships, Alabama Head Football Coach Nick Saban speaks about the process. The process is Saban’s term for concentrating on the steps to success rather than worrying about the end result. Instead of thinking about the scoreboard, think about dominating the man on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. Instead of thinking about a conference title, think about finishing a ninth rep in the weight room. Since Saban has won three of the past nine BCS titles, the phrase has morphed into the mission statement for Saban’s program-building philosophy. Today everyone is trying to replicate his philosophy and results. Call it the Sabanization of college football (footnote).
Once you accept that you need a process, then it comes down to guts. Famed contrarian investor Howard Marks knows it deep in his bones: “The real question is whether you dare to do the things that are necessary in order to be great. Are you willing to be different, and are you willing to be wrong? In order to have a chance at great results, you have to be open to being both.”
TREND FOLLOWING™ FOUNDATIONS
Big Money Starts with Trends, or Waves: Everyone that makes big money rides and surfs waves. And the really large money comes from the big and unexpected swells.
Adapt Your Trading to Market Movement: Markets go up, down and sideways. They trend. They flow. They surprise. They change. Know you will adapt from the outset. Don’t bother guessing how far a trend will go. You cannot.
Nurture Beats Nature: What constitutes a winning trader? A special gene or divine gift? Child prodigy innate talent? Inside knowledge? MBAs? Huge starting capital? One answer: No.
Everything Flows: Trend followers don’t predict direction. They react to market movements and follow along–without a story or conviction about why the market is moving.
Statistical Thinking Is Paramount: During a Monday Night Football game, one of the announcers, Ron Jaworski, unintentionally put numbers and odds in perspective for making money: “Play calling is about probability not certainty.”
Market Bubbles & Crashes Are Your Friend: The mythological 100-year flood happens regularly. Since 1929 there have been 18 market crashes–always rooted in irrational exuberance in one direction, then panics to get out in the other.
Speculation Is Not Evil: Think about what drives a market: millions of investors speculating to make money. That’s evil? That’s life! Recent college graduates speculate that a high-paying job will come after graduation. That’s evil.
Fundamentals Are Religion: To paraphrase trader Paul Tudor Jones: The illusion has been created that there is an explanation for every market move, every tick up or down, with the primary task to find that explanation. Ozzy also saw the insanity in fundamentals: I’m goin’ off the rails on a crazy train!
The Market Is Never Wrong: People pine nonstop for the market to go their direction, then hang on and pray it’ll come back if it doesn’t go in their favor. The market is never wrong. It doesn’t hear prayers. Losers average losers.
Never Trust Anyone: Whenever there is market movement Wall Street analysts always speculate why it occurred. What they say never consistently translates to the bottom line of profit.
You Have to Bet to Win: Take a big risk if you want a big reward. If you want an average reward, take an average risk. No balls, no babies. However, as Market Wizard Larry Hite said, “Don’t bet your deli to win a pickle.”
Trade Everything: Follow enough markets that when one moves you can ride it, as diversification is the only free lunch you get. Forget the market’s name. They are the same if you only trade price.
Process Beats Outcome: Do you want to be right or rich? You really have no control over the results; you have control over your action. What can you really control? How much you lose.
Think Like Kenny Rogers: If you must play decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes and quitting time. You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em. Know when to fold ‘em. Know when to walk away. Know when to run.
Learn to Love Losses: P.T. Barnum famously said, “This way to the egress!” If famed trader Amos Hostetter lost 25 percent he’d exit: “Never mind the cheese. Let me out of the trap.” Ignore losses, or try to double down to recoup, and those losses will bury you.
Slow Your Emotions Down: Don’t compete with the phony speed of society. Be a snake. Coil and strike when the time is right. That simple thought is the foundation of Daniel Kahneman’s Nobel Prize in Behavioral Economics.
The Babe Ruth Parallel: Babe Ruth struck out in bunches, but was one of baseball’s greatest sluggers. His home runs nullified the strikeouts. In between trading strikeouts, don’t lose too much while waiting for the next homerun, that’s the trick.
Price Is All That Matters: Forget the market. Stocks, bonds, gold or corn–your system needs to work on all of those different markets. Trend trader Ken Tropin said it: You cant have a suit so tight that if you gain two pounds it won’t fit.
Technology Is No Mistress: Pablo Picasso famously said, “Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.” Start by answering your daily market questions in advance. Automating answers is the easy part.
Zero Sum Battles Are Life: Someone has to lose for you to win. Forget trying to be loved. Need a friend? Get a dog. If you are going to win, someone else will lose. Does survival of the fittest make you uneasy? Stay out of the zero sum game (PDF).
Ivory Towers Are Prisons: The Efficient Markets Hypothesis has no useful application within profitable trading.
Avoid Benchmarks: “If you don’t have an umpire, you can wait for the fat pitch. The trouble with investing for other people…is that you do have an umpire–called quarterly performance.” Julian Robertson said it.
Panicky Sheep Take Cliff Dives Together: The group offers safety, confirmation and simplifies decision-making. If something goes wrong, it is far more comforting to be with others than to be alone. The old saying, “misery loves company”, rings true.
Hero Worship Kills Accounts: Many see market gurus as religious prophets. When TV zombies say it’s time to buy Google or dump Apple, millions follow random advice blindly. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid.
Buy and Hold (Hope) Is Dead: Buy and hold works for investors who live forever. It also works for those who believe in magical thinking and pixie dust. Mutual funds and cosmetics: They both sell hope.
Keep this in mind: the race is on, whether you run, sit or pretend there is no race:
Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed. Every morning a lion wakes up. It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death. It doesn’t matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle: when the sun comes up, you’d better be running.
Review our FAQs.
Trend Following™ can not promise you will earn the returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) stated. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. Data presented is for educational purposes. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. Trend Following™ assumes all data to be accurate, but assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.
Trend Following™ is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. This information is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund.
Further, Trend Following™ cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing.
Additionally, Trend Following™ in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any security or instrument. In addition, Trend Following™ accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as a basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.