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Trading Food for Thought: February 22nd Edition

Ep. 530: Against the Gods with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Against the Gods
Against the Gods

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Many take risk without thinking. They do not quantify risk. One of Michael’s first steps into the risk indoctrination came in the 1990’s through a book, “Against the Gods: A Remarkable Story of Risk.” Michael plays an excerpt from the author Peter Bernstein.

There is no perfect algorithm for risk, only guesses. Everyone has a limited amount of capital. Risk is putting your money down and knowing that you can lose it. In the trend following world, risk is why traders keep it small. How much can you afford to lose? This is the only thing you can control in the markets. Predictions should be a blinking red light for anyone listening.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Stop loss
  • Know your risk
  • How much are you willing to bet
  • Coarse risk management
  • Long Term Capital Management
  • Too much dependence on math

Mentions & Resources:

Want a FREE Trend Following DVD? Get it here.

Ep. 529: Annie Duke #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Annie Duke
Annie Duke

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Annie Duke is on the podcast for the second time. She is a poker player, author, decision making expert, and cognitive scientist. Her understanding of how luck, skill and uncertainty all play a role in life is fascinating.

Donald Trump has made some unusual cabinet choices, especially for getting elected by such a small margin. Annie breaks down her perspective on why Trump chose the way he did. One of the hardest people to play against is someone playing aggressively across the board, such as Trump. She relates Trump’s aggressive political playing to poker, giving insights as to how Trump opposition might be playing their cards to beat him.

Annie moves on to decipher luck and skill in decision making and outcomes. Black and white thinking can be harmful. Decisions that don’t go your way are not always the wrong choice. You may have taken the right direction, the cards just didn’t fall in your favor. You need to be able to move on and know that another chance is around the corner. Fixating on decisions that were wrong can easily start to snowball and make things personal. The key is to learn to move on from one hand dealt to another quickly because life won’t pause for anyone. Take the time to reflect later, but don’t get caught up in the moment and dwell on what mistakes you may, or may not have made.

The world of poker is a male driven sport. Focusing her purpose on winning the game rather than getting people at the table to like her enabled her to get over discrimination and actually use it to her advantage. Not caring about the approval of peers instantly gives the person being discriminated against the upper hand. Once you view something as a challenge rather than adversity you become a stronger person and begin creating a positive narrative for that situation and your life. Shying away from adversity is a way of giving up on yourself and falling victim. Facing adversity as a challenge provides self power and confidence.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Quality of outcome vs Quality of your decision
  • Game theory and math
  • Applying poker decision making to life decision making
  • Cognitive science

Mentions & Resources:

Want a FREE Trend Following DVD? Get it here.

Trading Food for Thought: February 16th Edition

Trend Following Resources for New Traders

Feedback in:

Hello Mr. Covel,

Having passed the CPA exam last year, I subscribed to the Wall Street Journal and found your podcast recently. As instructed on your podcast, I am emailing you because I would love any material for new investors that could help me grow and develop past the buy and hold phase I am currently in and learn to become a capable, active investor.

Love the podcast and appreciate your passion and content.

Sincerely,
[Name]

Starting steps: right here.

Trading Food for Thought: February 13th Edition