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Ep. 452: The Seduction of Fundamentals with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Seduction of Fundamentals

The Seduction of Fundamentals

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Michael Covel breaks apart Bill Ackman and Valeant Pharmaceuticals. He reads from a MarketWatch article that highlights documents that came from a Senate committee investigating the Valeant scandal, and the various reactions of top people involved. Michael also outlines and comments on various interchanges between Bill Ackman, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and news outlets.

This episode is a “behind the curtain look” at billionaire traders and the seduction of fundamentals.

Just a little attitude in this episode…

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamentals
  • Valeant vs. Enron
  • The Deep State
  • Fixing the media
  • Trading off price

“You have to fight back with intelligence. You have to fight back with smarts. You have to fight back with a good strategy. You can’t just sit there and accept what the system gives you because the system is going to give you exactly what it wants to give you.” – Michael Covel

Mentions & Resources:

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Posted in Podcasts, Trend Following

Buckle Up, It Will Soon Be Fun!

Feedback in:

Michael,

We must be close, Sir.

Not that I would expend an ounce of energy to defend any NY-based hedge fund (says the Chicago CTA), but as if this has just been a typical period since Mar ’09 “No more than 23% of active managers in any segment of the U.S. equities market outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 5 years” practically brings tears to my eyes – in laughter. And also hope. Hope that we are close to the next “unforeseen sequence of events” typically favorable for our preferred style of trading.

Attached is from this weekend’s Wall St. Journal in case you missed it.

Keep up the great work!

Thanks!

The Deranged Trust Pension Funds

The Deranged Trust Pension Funds

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Posted in Economics, Trading 101, Trend Following

Trading Food for Thought: May 22nd Edition

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Posted in Economics, Multimedia, Politics, Psychology, Risk Management, Trading 101, Trend Following

Ep. 451: Daehee Park and JT Marino Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

JT Marino & Daehee Park

JT Marino & Daehee Park

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Michael Covel talks with Daehee Park and JT Marino. They are the owners and founders of Tuft and Needle, a modern mattress company. They met during college at Penn state, parted ways after college and then met back up in Silicon Valley at a startup tech company.

Two young men, who had never worked at a mattress store and were coming straight out of Silicon Valley, hardly fit the mold of mattress company tycoons. When they first started Tuft and Needle, the majority of questions they received all circled around how and why they came to enter the business of mattresses. The answer was quite simple; JT and Daehee started the company based on horrible personal experiences buying mattresses. After their experiences and talking about them together, the two sat down and wrote out all the painful things associated with shopping for a mattress and discussed how they could eliminate those experiences. They came to find out that their wasn’t any “love” or brand loyalty associated with a mattress or the company. This was something they wanted to change.

Since they started with zero mattress experience, Michael asks the obvious question, “What was the first step you took once realizing you wanted to be in the mattress business?” The first step was building up the list of negative experiences they had encountered with personally buying a mattress. Second step was trying to figure out, “What is a mattress? What is the science involved? What are the root principles? And working backwards from that.” They ripped open one of their own mattresses and figured out the components. After seeing the makeup of the mattress, they called around to manufacturers to figure out what it would cost to build.

Next, Michael asks “What kind of motivation did you have for disrupting the industry?” JT and Daehee only figured out the kind of traction they could gain after about a year. They didn’t know how big of an “old boys club” the mattress industry really was. However, their success has proved that there was definite need for disruption in the industry. The bar was set so low to begin with in the industry that they immediately started disrupting it in all areas: price, technology and service by just by listening to customer feedback. Even with increasing their marketing over the years, the majority of their growth is 70% organic and word of mouth.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Marketing a company
  • Growing a startup
  • Product development
  • Importance of customer service
  • Creating art
  • Simplification of products
  • Venture capital

“If you took all of the suggestions and feedback that people give you, you would end up with a Frankenstein of a product.” – Daehee Park and JT Marino

Mentions & Resources:

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Posted in Entrepreneurship, Interviews, Multimedia, Podcasts, Trend Following

Trading Food for Thought: May 18th Edition

Food for thought:

Enjoy.

Paul Singer

Paul Singer


From Forbes:

Coming off a huge debt deal with Argentina, hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer’s advise is to be wary of expert advice. “The important turning points in markets are never identified with precision in advance by ‘experts’ and policymakers. This lack of foresight is not surprising, because markets and the course of the economy are not model-able scientific phenomena but rather are examples of mass human behavior, which are never predictable with anything like precision,” says Singer. “But what is surprising is that even the most sophisticated investors, traders and commentators continue to rely on predictions issued by those who have no record of success at such forecasts.”

Nice.

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Posted in Economics, Politics, Psychology, Trading 101, Trend Following

Yoga, Podcasts and Trend Following

Feedback in:

Michael,

I am the guy who was a member years ago, then recently renewed. I was hounding you in regards to the TradeStation systems that you built. I was also the guy who has been doing yoga, but only with YouTube videos. I used the funds that I won from the super bowl boxes for private lessons at a studio. It was fantastic. My practice grew exponentially. Unfortunately Spring Break with the family came right after the private lessons and I have regressed. I started up again recently, but again only at home. The studio that I like has classes that do not match with my schedule at this time. I enjoy yoga, but my practice is not where I would like. I will need to change my schedule to get my practice to grow. As far as trading goes. I have been watching my portfolio of symbols using a charting software. I haven’t been able to get involved with Trade Station. My wife and I have been having some life changing discussions about our finances. She is starting to come round to understand Trend Following, but so far I haven’t been a good salesmen. I have been listening to your podcasts, and love them. I hadn’t used my phone to listen to them before and now I can’t wait for my commute! I look forward to seeing the notification that you have a new podcast available. I finally figured out how to download older episodes so I will have days of the podcast to listen to. Have you ever had Josh Brown on? One of the podcast that I recently listened to you read an article of Josh’s that was fantastic. It was about everyone being a technical trader. If you haven’t had him on, that would be one for the not miss category. I also loved the stuff that you have done recently with basketball. The part about the Celtics coach and the audio of Gregg Popovich was filled with some great nuggets. I guess this is a long (very long) winded way of saying thanks. I appreciate all the material that you have out there for your students and for all. Someday I will pull the trigger for the TS code. I see that as my only way because of my business.

Thanks again,
[Name]

Thanks.

Josh is a busy guy, but he knows I welcome him any time.

Do Yoga

Do Yoga

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Mike Lofgren and The Deep State Podcast Feedback

Trend Following Radio feedback:

Hi Michael,

I finished up listening to your podcast with Mike Lofgren on “The Deep State” and felt the urge to just thank you for a very interesting, informative, provocative, but essential discussion. Ironically, the issues you discussed are standard dinner table topics for me and my family (I’d consider ourselves different from the norm in a good way). Unfortunately, today’s farrago of reality TV shows, sports, and social issues have become red herrings to the more important topics. Why discuss the vexing and complicated issues when we can just talk about the Kardashians or whether bathrooms should be genderless?… At any rate, look forward to more discussions on your podcast.

PS: I have also been working in investments for a couple years but would could consider myself a “new” trader. At the end of your podcast you mentioned you’d send some trend following steps. I currently use a nuanced Tom Demark Indicator system, but I’m always open to learning something new.

Thanks again,
[Name]

Thanks!

The Deep State

The Deep State

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