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Ep. 277: A Million Words and Justifications with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Synopsis: Today on the podcast, Michael Covel opens up relating a Bob Dylan lyric to uncertainty. You can’t tell what’s going to happen tomorrow; you can’t tell what’s going to happen to people in your life. You can just go with it–you can just keep on keeping on. But predicting tomorrow, thinking that you have an explanation as to how it’s going to actually unfold? You’re kidding yourself if you think you can predict tomorrow. People are paid a lot of money to pretend that they can predict tomorrow. But it is pretending, no doubt about it. Covel moves into his main topic for the day, noting that since March of 2009, stocks have taken off. It’s a massive trend–a trend following dream for stocks. Covel also sees that the fundamental guys look at the all-time highs with justifications. Trend followers have no justifications. There have been millions of words since March of 2009 written by fundamental traders justifying the all-time highs, and people get paid a lot of money to write these justifications. What will all those words count for if the S&P makes another 50% drop? How do you make a fundamental decision in the face of a game where fundamentally, the only thing you really have is “can you predict what the Federal Reserve will do next?” Covel also shares some words of wisdom from trend following trader Jerry Parker that he obtained through a recent email, as well as words from Tom Basso and David Cheval. These traders all agree on one thing: ride the trend. Building on these thoughts, Covel moves into talking about football, Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia Eagles, Hal Mumme, and Mike Leach. Covel uses this as a metaphor for why you can’t be a trend following trader in one market alone. So, if you can’t predict tomorrow, what can you do? You can take what’s given. You can take the trend that arrives. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

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