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Quick Trend Following Q&A: Price and Volume

Michael Covel on iTunes

Michael Covel on iTunes

Price is key when trading. Consider from, Trend Commandments:

Tell me something the “market” does not know. The idea that you can know enough about Apple, oil, GE, and gold to trade them all the same way may seem preposterous, but think about what they all have in common: Price.

Market price is objective data. You can look at individual price histories, without knowing which market is which, and still trade all successfully. That is not what they teach at Harvard, Wharton, Kellogg, Stern, Darden, or pick your favorite business school du jour.

However, the concept of price as the critical trading cue may be too simple for mass acceptance. For example, a prominent business anchor opined: “At some point, investing is an act of faith. If you can’t believe the numbers, annual reports, etc., what numbers can you believe?” A longtime financial reporter at Fortune magazine was also on the highway going the wrong direction: “If some of the smartest people on Wall Street can’t trust the numbers, you wonder who can trust the numbers.”

You can never trust those numbers—that is, the reported firm details—completely. Someone can always alter them (remember Enron had a fake trading floor). Beyond that, even if you know accurate balance sheet numbers, how does this help you determine when or how much to buy or sell?

The market is always right, and price is the only true reality in trading. If you want to make money in any market, you need to mirror what the market is doing. If the market is going down and you are long, the market is right and you are wrong. If the market is going up and you are short, the market is right and you are wrong. Other things being equal, the longer you stay right with the market, the more money you will make. The longer you stay wrong with the market, the more money you will lose.

You do not need to know anything about bonds. You do not need to understand different currencies. They are just numbers. Corn is a little different than bonds, but not different enough to trade them differently. Some people have a different system for each market. That is absurd. You are trading mob psychology. You are not trading corn, soybeans, or S&P’s. You are merely trading numbers.

Some feedback from a listener on price:

Dear Michael, I think that you have done a great work in explaining what trend following is. However, there are two great arguments that you have never faced:

1. You have always discussed price. I know that prices constitute a trend. Nevertheless, you should interview some of the main traders that [use] volumes. I would like to know how great traders interpret volumes as they are the first step for an incoming new trend. This study is lacking in all your work. It would be very helpful to know anything about that.

2. You have always talked about trends. It is correct. However, it is better to buy a stock that is likely to have a +200% uptrend than a stock that is only likely to have a +20% uptrend. So the questions is: how do great trend follower traders make their picks by relying their choice ONLY on prices and volumes?

I will wait for a polite answer of yours.

Kind regards,
[Name]

You can’t predict the next 20% v. 200% move. Impossible.

Volume? That is not the main topic of conversation in my trend following world.

Good place to start: Read (PDF).

More to read.

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