Trend Following Performance

Trend Following Performance: Huge Returns for Decades

This page is proof that huge returns can be made as a trend following trader, but before considering the numbers consider trend following trader David Harding. He has made over $500 million USD trading as a trend follower in the last few years and every few years CNBC has him on for interviews. Unfortunately, CNBC doesn't have much of a clue as to what Harding does to make money. The question from Erin Burnett at 2:21 sums up why so many people lose money. Harding's answer is classic:

Keep in mind trend followers trade everything: stocks, futures, currencies, LEAPs®, ETFs & commodities. Trend following is a strategy not limited to some one group of markets. Interestingly, the pair reconnected a year later, but Burnett still doesn't understand what Harding does. Her questions are all fundamentally based:

David Harding is in Michael Covel's documentary film Broke. He is also featured in the book Trend Following.

Trend Following Fortunes

Who are some of the great trend following traders over the last 30 years? How much have they made? Consider:

• Bruce Kovner: Kovner is a trend following trader featured in Jack Schwager's 'Market Wizards.' He was trained by trend follower Michael Marcus. Marcus was trained by Ed Seykota. More on Seykota can be found in 'Trend Following.' Kovner is worth over $3.5 billion (source).
• John W. Henry: Henry is a trend following trader featured in 'Trend Following.' He is worth $840 million (source). He used his trend following gains to buy the Boston Red Sox for $700 million.
• Bill Dunn: Dunn is a trend following trader featured in 'Trend Following.' Dunn made $80 million in 2008 when the rest of the world was blowing up.
• Michael Marcus: Marcus is a trend following trader featured in Jack Schwager's 'Market Wizards.' He turned an initial $30,000 into $80 million (source).
• David Harding: Harding is a trend following trader featured in 'Trend Following.' He is worth over $500 million (see above).
• Ed Seykota: Seykota is a trend following trader featured in 'Trend Following.' He turned $5,000 into $15 million over 12 years in his model account (an actual client account).
• Kenneth Tropin: Trend following trader Tropin made $120 million in 2008 as buy and hold collapsed. Earlier in his career he led John W. Henry's firm.

Will everyone make such huge amounts? Of course not, but those trend followers all started as one-man shops and that is inspirational. Worst case? A small fraction of those huge fortunes would satisfy most people. You can read about our clients' success here.

2010 Performance Comparisons

Trend following performance compared to major stock indexes:

• Old Pro Index compared to Dow.
• Old Pro Index compared to NASDAQ.
• Old Pro Index compared to S&P.

More trend following performance compared to major stock indexes:

• Old Pro Index compared to U.S. indexes.
• Old Pro Index Global compared to world indexes.
• Trend Following Index compared to U.S. indexes.
• Trend Following Index Global compared to world indexes.

Turtle trend following performance compared to major stock indexes:

• Turtle Index compared to S&P.
• Turtle Index compared to Dow.
• Turtle Index compared to NASDAQ.
• Turtle Index compared to Nikkei.
• Turtle Index compared to FTSE.
• Turtle Index compared to All Ordinaries.

Trend Following Legend

Bill Dunn is one of the great trend followers. He has been successfully trading as a trend follower since 1974. His track record:

No one can promise that you will be Bill Dunn or produce his returns. We are not an agent for Dunn. That said, his performance is a historical marker on file with the U.S. government. It is proof that trend following works and if you want to be a trend follower -- we can help.

Trend Following Backtest Reports

The following trend following performance simulations provide an example hypothetical portfolios and performance:

• Example 1
• Example 2
• Example 3
• Example 4

Below are top trend following traders compared to major stock indexes:

• Abraham Trading compared to U.S. indexes.
• Abraham Trading compared to world indexes.
• Aspect Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Aspect Capital compared to world indexes.
• Chesapeake Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Chesapeake Capital compared to world indexes.
• Clarke Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Clarke Capital compared to world indexes.
• Drury Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Drury Capital compared to world indexes.
• Dunn Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Dunn Capital compared to world indexes.
• Eclipse Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Eclipse Capital compared to world indexes.
• EMC Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• EMC Capital compared to world indexes.
• Hawksbill Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Hawksbill Capital compared to world indexes.
• Man compared to U.S. indexes.
• Man compared to world indexes.
• Millburn compared to U.S. indexes.
• Rabar compared to U.S. indexes.
• Rabar compared to world indexes.
• Transtrend compared to U.S. indexes.
• Transtrend compared to world indexes.
• Winton Capital compared to U.S. indexes.
• Winton Capital compared to world indexes.

Trend Following Performance Reports

The following performance reports show returns that can be generated by sticking with systematic trend following trading systems:

• Salem Abraham (PDF)
• Dunn Capital I (PDF)
• Dunn Capital II (PDF)
• Dunn Capital III (PDF)
• Man AHL I; London (PDF)
• Man AHL II; London (PDF)
• Eclipse Capital (PDF)
• Liz Cheval; Turtle (PDF)
• Millburn (PDF)
• Bernard Drury (PDF)

Trend Following Winning Charts

• Chart 1
• Chart 2
• Chart 3
• Chart 4
• Chart 5
• Chart 6

Trend following methods can be used on stocks, ETFs, LEAPs, futures, currencies and all commodities. A small sample of markets that can be traded:

Universal Chart Example

The universal chart example should be understood by all.

'Trend Following' Book

More examples of trend following performance over the last 30 years are in the book Trend Following.

Disclaimers

Marylebone Holdings, LTD. (d.b.a TurtleTrader®) can not promise you will earn like returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) mentioned. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. Data presented is for educational purposes. This information is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.