Statistical analysis, understanding, and critical thinking has been thrown by the wayside in today’s culture. Most of modern life and modern views have done away with looking at numbers, track records, and data.
Richard Clarke is co-author of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.” Richard was also the former National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection and Counter-terrorism for the United States. He worked for the government starting with Ronald Reagan’s Presidency and continued to move up the ladder until he resigned in 2003 under President George W. Bush’s presidency.
Was there a starting point to Islamist terrorism? Were American’s affected much by the Gulf War? What was some red flags raised about the World Trade Center bombing? What are Cassandras? What did we know, and what were some warning signs at the time of 9-11? Why did we still go to war after 9-11 when the evidence was so lacking to go into Iraq? Michael and Richard go through these questions and many more throughout the podcast. Michael ends the interview asking Richard, “How can you see the next 10 to 20 years unfolding?”
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
The Gulf War
World Trade Center bombing
Osama bin Laden
The underestimation of Al-Qaida
Forcing democracy on the world
War on Iraq
“We invaded Iraq with no legitimate reason to do so… it was complete and utter folly.” – Richard Clarke
Peter Borish is chief strategist of Quad Capital. He works as a trading coach and helps recruit new traders and develop the company’s trading strategy. He also is a founding member of the Robin Hood Foundation. The Robin Hood Foundation has made great strides in their charity work and are continuing to do bigger and better things. Peter believes that the quality of life for those around you is much more important than the material possessions that can be accumulated.
Michael and Peter change gears from charity work, to trading and Quad Capital. Quad Capital has had only 5 or 6 down months since inception about 42 months ago. What does their multi-strategy approach consist of? They look at alpha generating, capacity constrained strategies. They also believe investors are looking at liquidity, therefore that is exactly what they provide in their funds.
Peter is the business of managing risk, not just being right. Another way of putting it is, “Are you interested in making money or are you interested in being right?” We should all be in the business of making money, over being right. That being said, is Quad Capital open to other strategies that could make them money? As long as the strategy fits within their trading philosophy, then they are always open to new talent. Michael and Peter finish the conversation talking sports analogies. A lot of traders think they are Michael Jordon, but are they Michael Jordon on the Bulls? Or are they Michael Jordon on the White Sox?
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Robin Hood Foundation
Having objectivity in your trading
Own up to your mistakes
“Everyone trades too large relative to their perceived edge.” – Peter Borish
Collin Seow is author of “The Systematic Trader: How I turned a $250,000 debt into profits through stock trading.” He also is a qualified Chartered Portfolio Manager with a Certified Financial Technician qualification, and a member of MENSA Singapore and Technical Analysts Society Singapore.
Michael and Collin switch discuss the “Singaporean perspective.” What is the Singaporean perspective and what helped lay the foundation for their success? The founding fathers of Singapore set forth strict rules and regulations so people knew what they could and could not do. The system was laid out clear and concise. Citizens knew what their boundaries were down to the last detail. For example, there are rules defined ranging from whether or not you can chew gum to how far trees are allowed to be planted apart from one another.
Collin moves from the Singaporean perspective socially, to their perspective on trading. More traders in Asia seem to be open to the idea of systematic trading. When he back tests a system, he doesn’t just look at making money, he tries to figure out how to filter out the losses. He wants to protect what he has so the returns will take care of themselves. Picking a certain percent that you’re willing to risk on a trade is not necessarily intuitive. Collin also looks at both position trading and swing trading, and adjusts his risk according to trading style. Although there are many different styles, and factors that play into how one will trade, Collin still attributes over 50% of trading success to having the right psychology.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Different types of momentum trading
Position trading vs. swing trading
A sense of entitlement in today’s society
“At the end of the day it isn’t about having the right strategy, it’s about having the right mindset.” – Collin Seow
“If you don’t have an edge, how the hell are you suppose to play the game?” – Michael Covel
If you’re a regular listener to Trend Following Radio, chances are you’re not a fan of PC culture. Michael dives into the recent controversy over the Google employee that was fired over his 10 page manifesto on gender and race regulations.
Michael moves on and reads a quote from “The Wisdom of Insecurity” by Alan Watts–written 60 years ago and relevant more than ever today. What is the PC culture of modern day? It is the insecurities of people coming out. Michael makes the comparison between zombies and PC culture. We are literally living George Orwell’s 1984.
Michael finishes by pulling in a baseball analogy using Yankee heavy hitter, Aaron Judge. Teams have adjusted and are not throwing Judge the same pitches they were throwing in the first half of the season. He now has to take what is given, and adjust his strategy. He can’t choose what pitch the pitcher is going to throw him, he just has to take what he is given and roll with it. Same mentality goes with the stock market. When the stock market is at all time highs, people let anything go. You can’t choose where the market is going to take you, you just have to go with it and be prepared to adjust accordingly.
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