I know that the crypto market is primarily comprised of whales, institutional investors and retail. I’ve seen that whales push prices higher to attract the emotional impulses of retail to chase their dreams of unimaginable profit, irrationally, in order to then sell to them towards the market cycle top and exit the market until the next accumulation. Thus there is a higher degree of emotion informing trade decisions (and I’ve had a brief “dumb” phase myself, so I know what it feels like and how it tends to behave.) and these cycles and participant traits lend to the volatility of the markets. I think it’s imperative to consider what is happening on the other side of the trade from time to time, for it to be one of the check boxes in a trade decision tree. This latest phase of markup has been particularly challenging since on chain analytics indicate that the whales that sold off during the Wyckoff distribution really haven’t bought back in. I was expecting a lower bottom than what we appear to have reached, at around 28-29k, though I’m remaining skeptical of this recovery and am aware that in prior cycles there have been strong markups that have capitulated dramatically again. In all of this I’m trying to discern signs of what actors may be in play. I don’t think this should be the central thesis to trade upon, at least not alone, but I think it’s a mistake to divorce price action from the human beings as the causal factors entirely. All this being said, I know I barely know anything about markets and trading, I’m still very much in learning mode.
Forget every word you have written here. Rip it up and start over.
My books, Jack Schwager’s books, etc. Go that path.