From Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 Google Talk on the promotional tour for Thinking Fast And Slow:
“Intuitive expertise is not going to develop in a chaotic universe… I personally do not believe that stock pickers can develop intuition… there isn’t enough regularity in what’s going to happen to prices for intuitions to develop. When there are marginal situations where there is some predictability but poor, formulas do better than individuals… that is the domain where formulas beat individuals regularly is the domain of fairly low predictability, because when there are weak cues, people are not very good at picking them up and are not good at using them consistently, but formulas can be generated on the basis of experience and they will do a better job than individual judgement.”
Building off the Nobel winner comes the richest guy ever Jeff Bezos:
“When we make mistakes, and we’ve made doozies, like the Firephone and many other things that just didn’t work out–we don’t have enough time for me to list all of our failed experiments, but the big winners pay for thousands of failed experiments.”
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