All Winning Months Should Scare the Hell Out of Anyone, Not Cause Excitement

Tyler writes:

Mr. Covel I am in need of your assistance. You seem very active in the investing world and you may know someone who may be compatible with I’ve developed. We’ve all heard that if something sounds to good to be true then it probably is but that is not a truth only an opinion. I have developed a trend following system unlike anything else in the world and I know it’s value. If I showed you how it works it is only “logical” that it’s for real. I have showed this to two seasoned investors and they pretty much offered me everything they had for it but they both turned out to be untrustworthy and a deal was never reached. This system has the ability to pull trillions (to good to be true?) out of the market over time. When I get big enough I can follow every asset with a quoted price globally and develop software to automatically initiate trades. I can diagnose the entire history of any stock and indicate when it would of been bought or sold for maximum gains. This is for real. The average gain is 65% and the average holding period is 13 weeks. I ran diagnostics on [name] and over the last 10 years if you followed what the system advised it would of returned 74,500% based on the rules I developed for the system. YOU CANNOT LOSE. It is illogical once you learn how the system works. You will have small losses but the rules help you minimize losses and maximize gains. I have corresponded with many Wall Street “alleged” gurus to no avail. All someone has to do is see what I have. My issue is capital I have very little and very little time to successfully utilize the system. I’m looking for someone that would be interested in starting me with a small stake and seeing what I can do. There is a pattern that every stock forms indicating the future trend and I have mastered this pattern. It may sound like crap but like I said all someone has to do is look at it and they will see how logical the system is. A 5th grader would see how easy and accurate it is. In history all top performers were overlooked many time before someone gave them a chance, took a risk and was rewarded handsomely. I am one of those people, eventually someone will take the time to see what I have and their world will be forever changed.

You don’t have losing months?

His response:

No, every time the pattern manifests it’s usually correct. However, sometimes it could consolidate after a signal. If the market is waiting on a news event or other short term economic indicator stocks consolidate for awhile and don’t really do anything.

So there are no losing months? Can you understand the points you are making don’t sound like trend following?

His response:

Well, like I said it’s unbelievable until you actually see how it works. No, losses are not sustainable because of how the equities are purchased. I put in a 2.75% stop on every trade so sometimes you can have the stock slide back and trigger your stop but the key is to continue following the stock and keep buying the higher price until it really does take off. There ;are] no losing months, but sometimes it can take time for signals to develop. Based on my research it’s right 100% percent of the time, once you see the way I record prices it becomes very easy to understand, you saw the trades right?

I don’t think we are a match here, but I wish you luck!

His response:

Don’t you understand this is the most sophisticated and accurate trend following system in existence? When I think about it, I don’t understand how others are able to capitalize in the market. When the big hedge funds come out with their recently acquired positions most of their purchases are in sustained downtrends.

Trend following doesn’t fixate on accuracy, but best of luck.

His response:

Like I said this is new & infallible.

2 thoughts on “All Winning Months Should Scare the Hell Out of Anyone, Not Cause Excitement

  1. I wonder if he has heard of curve fitting. Perhaps he should contact the Delta Society if he has found the perfect system.

  2. regression that fits perfectly historically i’m sure. problem is prospectively. any system that never has draw downs has never been traded in real time. and if it is that good, borrow $10k from mama and turn it into $10mm and stop pestering covel.

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