I Could Be Wrong I Could be Right

At this video Ron Paul offers:

“Default is coming. The only argument that’s going on now is how to default, not send the checks out or just print the money. In all countries our size, they always print the money. They’re going to raise the debt limit, and then they’re going to print the money, and then they’ll default by inflation, and that’s much more dangerous than facing up to the facts of what’s happening today.”

The ole Johnny Lydon (Rotten) lyric comes to mind:

I could be wrong I could be right
I could be black I could be white
I could be right I could be wrong
I could be white I could be black

Paul is a smart guy, and clearly there are big problems, but when it comes to betting your capital…a trend following system sure seems more pragmatic over predictions.

5 thoughts on “I Could Be Wrong I Could be Right

  1. Paul is correct. He has been correct, and will remain correct. He is speaking of repetitive Megatrends. He is not of speaking of Primary, Secondary or Tertiary Trends which occur in trend following. I do not know him personally, but I am sure that he is well aware of the writings of Ludvig Von Mises, Gustave LeBon & FA Hayek plus others.

    So just who is Paul talking to? Paul is NOT talking to people who have enough capital “bet” or invest. He is speaking to the “average” working man who believed in the “American System”, the person who never had enough excess capital to follow the “American Dream”. He is speaking to the person who has been “running in place” for many years just trying to keep up.

    A great percent of the “silent majority ” has been screwed by the US government with various types of inflation that confiscate capital without due process. They have known this for quite some time, but many did not know what to do about it politically. They now know.

    I have read your book “Trend Commandments”. It is excellent. It has put a lot of icing on my cake.
    With respect,
    Dr Leo Richard
    FACS, FCRS, Retired & investing for >20 yrs.

  2. The problem with being ‘right’ is sometimes the ‘timing’ is wrong. There is the political calculus and the money making calculus. Thanks for nice words!

  3. Apart from being right or wrong in the prediction. I think the Austrians are right in lots if not all of their analysis of many bad habits of politics and public finance. I have read some books of Ron Paul including ‘The Case for Gold’, and also some of Mises, Hazlitt, Rothbard, Hayek and some of younger protagonists and especially like Mises’ theory of money and subjective value theory.

    That said, however, the solutions proposed by nowadays modern austrians, prominently the rebirth of the famous gold standard or allowing privately issued gold based currency as legal tender (huuh) as well as abolishing FED incl. fractional reserve banking, so far failed to be translated to steps which can be implemented into real politics in the large. Whether this is based on practicability (too big a step), or because the proposed treatment is also in parts not really the cure for the disease, is the question.

    The GOLD-market tells us, how this could work: anybody founds their own gold standard as long as the trend…

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