Trend Commandments & CNBC

My new book Trend Commandments tackles financial news head on. An excerpt where I analyze a CNBC interview with trend trader David Harding:


Joe Kernen is not devoid of academic intelligence. He holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of Colorado in molecular, cellular, and developmental biology and master’s degree from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He worked at several investment banks including Merrill Lynch. I am no Harding fanboy or apologist, but I have spent time with him. That research time, coupled with his public career and track record, make him one of the most learned trend trading voices of the past twenty years. It is clear to me that Kernen had a preformulated agenda [in the interview]. His questioning was a transparent attempt to marginalize Harding and trend following. Why would Kernen do that? Imagine if the interview started like this:

“We at CNBC believe in efficient markets and the use of fundamental analysis. Our business model requires viewers to watch. Today, we have a guest on who has made billions with trend following trading, which does not require fundamental analysis or CNBC. Would you like to know how to make money without ever watching our channel again? Welcome David Harding!”


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4 thoughts on “Trend Commandments & CNBC

  1. If Kernen were sharp he wouldn’t be lead anchor of CNBC but part lead scientist of some prestigious biotech laboratory. Having a diploma and being smart are two opposite realities.

  2. That interview is disappointing in that it is evident that Kernen is trying to link Harding to LTCM sonehow, and his last comment about being back with the same “moniker” is ridiculous. Harding took the high road, but I would have like to have seen him dismantle Kernen, which I am quite sure he could have done fairly easily.

  3. Straight from our June newsletter:

    For the month of June we produced a positive return of 4.98%. Similarly to the previous month, we achieved results from both long and short positions in the major currency pairs. This is an indication that there was no clear consensus amongst traders and fund managers of the Greek debt crisis. We were amused by the weekly changes in perception of the Greek problem and the associated bailout and austerity measures. This gives us, as with so many times in the past, confirmation that traditional fundamental analysis is of little use in investment in general, and more so in the foreign exchange market.

    Markets are driven by the collective wishes, fears and perceptions of large groups of market participants, who are often frustratingly irrational. Therefore, even if the most prudent fundamental analyst is correct in his macroeconomic research, he does not have access to the sum total of human perceptions of such data. Even if there is apparent consensus, the timing of such agreement may not be equal, creating a market which again is fully unpredictable. It is for this reason that systematic, disciplined traders with good money management will continue to flourish.

  4. I watched the interview on youtube and Kernen is what my granddaddy use to call, a educated idiot.

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