2 thoughts on “He Might Be Right Fundamentally, But How Do You Trade Off It?

  1. “How do you trade off it?” Great question. Rhetorical, I know. But why not give Mr. Seykota a chance to answer anyway…

    “Trend following is an exercise in observing and responding to the ever-present moment of now.”

    The title of that interview includes the phrase “Still to come…” so I’m guessing it can’t be of the “ever-present moment of now”.

    “Fundamentalists and anticipators may have difficulties with risk control because a trade keeps looking ‘better’ the more it goes against them.”

    I think I heard the phrase “this can’t last much longer” in that interview somewhere…

    “Until you master the basic literature and spend some time with successful traders, you might consider confining your trading to the supermarket.”

    Thanks for giving us time with successful traders, Michael. Much appreciated. Those interview guys might want to head to Ralphs right now.

    “I don’t predict a nonexisting future.”

    Me either, Ed. Me either. But some other folks do NOT share that view.

  2. To second Mike & David, I think the useful reminder in this goes back to Ludwig von Mises, who pointrf out that there is no such thing as the Present – only the very recent past, as far as anything that may be analyzed objectively, & then communicated.
    So, discretion is only applied to past stuff, objectively – & that may hold zero indication of what comes next.
    It seems to me that Ed Seykota’s emphasis on emotions & intuition, offering practiced & informed guesses about future stuff, is the only way “prediction” makes any sense.
    And it probably only makes sense for those, even of lesser talent levels, who have achieved unconscious competence in trading, through long practice & experience.
    To get to that point, we can thank Mike for persistent of teaching sound Trend Following strategies, + opening our awareness to thoughts of the great traders.

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