Podcasts: A Restart

Three new podcasts:

Aug 17: MP3 1

Aug 16: MP3 2

Jul 14: MP3 3

I took a long break, but starting up the podcasts again. Hit me with questions via email if you want me to cover a subject.

6 thoughts on “Podcasts: A Restart

  1. Michael –

    With regards to the August 17 podcast, surely how much a three month period tells you is determined by how many trades you place in that period.

    For example, let’s say you’re trading the intra-day timeframe, and placing 2-3 trades a day. I’d have thought that, at the end of 3 months, you’d have placed a large enough number of trades to gauge the effectiveness of your methods.


  2. Jeff says: “…surely how much a three month period tells you is determined by how many trades you place in that period.”

    No, because if the market conditions haven’t changed (but we have a reasonable history to show they will at some point in time) and the system itself hasn’t changed, it doesn’t matter how many trades you place (or what the time frame is).

    If you really believe you can track the results of ANY trading system after 12 weeks you have absolutely no chance of winning at the game of trading. Please open a brokerage account soon and tell me which market(s) you’ll be trading so I can come and take some of your money 🙂

  3. Michael: I too hear from subscribers who tell me that my Strategy is not working because they lost money in some period of time. We must remember that there are investors out there who think that every trade should be positive. I am sure that they only think about making money and never think about losing money on a trade. I accept their unrealistic comments and move on. And I certainly do not consider changing my Trend Following Strategy as some suggest.

  4. Michael: I listened to your July 14 interview, excellent. You mentioned “Buy and Hold Is Dead” I agree that the subject would not be welcome on CNBC. I wrote a 5,000 word article with that title that is available to anyone who is interested. Also, I might mention that several years ago I attended a Market Technicials Association (MTA) conference. While having a beer with a very famous member, he asked me what percentage of my market timing calls were correct. My answer was 100%. He didn’t believe me then and he wouldn’t believe me now. I did explain that each Signal identified a change in the trend of the market. What it didn’t do is tell me how long that trend would last or if it would turn out to be profitable. So yes, I lost money on Buy Signals because the trend reversed, but I also limited my losses because I get out when the trend turns down. But I stick with the Strategy and I act on every change in the trend.

  5. Discouragement, or elation, neither work well with trend following. I definitely tout full month by month track records of many of the great ones. Much to be learned from those numbers.

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