I Have Heard It All

A Turtle who bombed big time over the 20 years since Dennis disbanded the Turtle program now is pumping the idea that trading is once again genetic and not about systems — all the while pretending to be a tremendous trading success. At first blush this all appears to be a lengthy rationalization for documented failures. Stay tuned. I will obviously have more to say in response.

Note: In a general sense I am amazed at Wall Street. Does anyone out there do any due diligence or does it just make people feel good to act surprised when a Madoff or Stanford appear on the scene?

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2 thoughts on “I Have Heard It All

  1. >>> Does anyone out there do any due diligence <<<

    I remember reading in a book where the author found a stack of old analyst reports in a closet. His wife, also a writer, had gathered them for a project several years prior and had never junked them. He decided to go through them and see how the predictions turned out. The result? A coin toss. Some companies did as predicted and some didn’t. But even the ones who were way wrong were still employed and still highly paid.

    Try this yourself. Go to your favorite investment bank or full service broker and ask for all the quarterly sector analysis reports for the last three years from their housing analyst and see what happens. Tell Michael and he can post the results on this site.

  2. I also did this by accident. I wanted to know the analysts’ expectations for the price of oil a couple years ago so I googled, “predictions for oil price”. I didn’t specifiy a year so I got predictions from analysts for several different years. I would say they were worse than a coin toss, probably about 75% WRONG.

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