Homes: About to Get Much Cheaper

This ain’t good if true:

If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They’re expected to head a lot lower. Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year, according to a new forecast of real estate prices. Overall, the national median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30, 2010, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm. For the following year, the firm anticipates some stabilization with prices rising 3.6%. In the past, Fiserv anticipated the rapid decline in home-sale prices over the past few years — though it underestimated the scope. Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s, agreed with Fiserv’s current assessments. “I think more price declines are coming because the foreclosure crisis is not over,” he said. In fact, those areas with high concentrations of foreclosure sales will experience the steepest drops, according to Fiserv. Miami, for example, is expected to be the biggest loser. Prices are forecast to plunge 29.9% by next June — after having already fallen a whopping 48% during the past three years. If Fiserv’s forecast holds, Miami real median home price will tumble to $142,000 by June 2011. In Orlando, Fla., the second-worst performing market, Fiserv anticipates a 27% price collapse by June 2010, followed by a less severe drop the following year. In Hanford, Calif., prices are estimated to drop 26.9% and continue falling 9.5% in 2011; in Naples, Fla., they’re expected to fall 26.8% and then flatten out. Other notable losers include Las Vegas, where prices have already fallen 54.6% and are expected to lose another 23.9% by June 2010. In Phoenix values have already collapsed by 54% and could fall another 23.4%. In both cities, Fiserv anticipates the losses to continue into 2011, but they will be less than 5%.

Wow. Where are these predictions coming from?

4 thoughts on “Homes: About to Get Much Cheaper

  1. And Option ARM defaults haven’t even started to kick in full throttle.. let alone the commercial real estate defaults.

  2. Psychology 101. If you hear a fact, and you can’t remember the source, then that fact becomes very reliable in your mind.

    The herd behavior on the downside is starting to resemble the same herd behavior during the boom.

    I just feel bad for the people who believe in buy and hold. We won’t know when the bottom is hit until prices start to rise again.

    I was going to cut my losses last year, but I believed that Obama would fix everything as soon as he was elected. 🙂

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