Soros: “The Recession Will Last Forever”

The headline “Soros: The Recession Will Last Forever” (article) caught my attention. Soros is a smart guy. He has made a lot of money. Will his prediction shake out? I have no clue, but I really don’t think he can predict the future either. An excerpt:

If the G20 is nothing but a talking shop then he thinks we are heading for meltdown. “That could push the world into depression. It’s really a make-or-break occasion. That’s why it’s so important.” The chances of a depression are, he says, “quite high” – even if that is averted, the recession will last a long time. “Look, we are not going back to where we came from. In that sense it’s going to last for ever..”

You never want to hear one of the greatest traders, regardless whether you like his politics or not, talk like that.

10 thoughts on “Soros: “The Recession Will Last Forever”

  1. IF THIS EVENT HAS TAUGHT US ANYTHING, THAT THERE ARE NO EXPERTS. SOROS HAS MADE MONIES AND ALSO HAS LOST LOTS OF MONIES. WE HAVE ALOT OF MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACKS GIVING US THE WHY’S AND WHEREFORES’S. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT EVERYTIME ONE OF THESE EVENTS HAPPENS. EVERYONE SAYS IT IS DIFFERENT. I THINK JESSIE LIVEMORE SAID IT BEST, THE MARKETS CHANGE BUT PEOPLE NEVER DO. WE WILL KEEP GOING THROUGH BOOMS AND BUST. THAT IS THE ONLY SURE THING BESIDES TAXES AND DEATH.

  2. just a dumb comment. the only way it will last forever is if the socialists take over as they are trying to now.

  3. I remember ex USSR or better yet ex Jugoslavia… socialism the way some masons had envisioned is doomed. I remember hyperinflations here in ex Yugoslavia that were used to combat excessive debt.. Well it was the day of milk and honey like it was until recently in US just on a lover scale until there had came the day to pay off all that debt – after that came the days of blood & tears but most folks here still don’t sweat but keep crying on and on. Sheeple was like that and always will be like that.

  4. When the big guys open their mouths they always have an axe to grind. No point in listening to their drivel.

  5. Sandy stated:
    “the only way it will last forever is if the socialists take over as they are trying to now.”

    This has been the latest talking point from FoxNews. It is of course baseless. If you are going to argue this, then you also have to admit that Bush was a socialist since he launched the initial bailout packages in 2008. And do you really think John McCain, if elected, would have done anything differently? As you know he voted for the $700 billion bailout plan in 2008.

    By the way, do you want to privatize our police forces, our fire departments and our military? If not, you also believe in some socialism.

    The fact is that the US has had some kind of socialism forever. The only thing that keeps changing is the degree of it. I don’t know if Obama’s economic plan will succeed or not. He is just trying to fix the economic mess that was handed to him. And I bet McCain’s plan, if he had been elected, would not have been much different. But I doubt FoxNews would ever call him a socialist…

  6. I WOULD SUGGEST THAT ECONOMIC HISTORY IS ON MY SIDE WHEN IT COMES TO BOOM AND BUST(ALSO KNOW AS BUBBLES) AND IF YOU DOUBT THIS STATEMENT, PLEASE READ “EXTRAORDINARY POPULAR DELUSIONS AND THE MADNESS OF CROWDS”

  7. Joe-

    Who said Bush and McCain were not socialists? They are certainly statists. The fact that Bush was an enormous statist has no bearing on the validity of the arguement that Obama’s hyper-socialist tendencies will make things even worse.

    BTW- We’d probably be better off with for-profit fire companies.

  8. If we have problems with private companies managing other people’s money, why do you think private police/fire departments are going to be any better. This is just an anti-socialist pipe-dream.

    Also, see how poorly they handled security as contractors in iraq.

  9. Hi Raj-

    Your argument seems to indicate that government would be better managing other people’s money than the private sector. Is this what you believe? There are obviously problems with the way many private asset managers operate, but to think these issues would somehow improve were the government to take charge is absolute madness. There are many private managers with lenghtly track-records of success (as Covel makes abundantly clear.) Can you name one public pension manager who has enjoyed any sort of long-term success? Are public pensions generally in good financial health right now?

    That said, I don’t think a private police force or military is a good idea and have never said as much. (However, I’m open to listen to the arguement if its out there.) Enforcing laws, protecting citizens from each other (not themselves), and protecting citizens from foreign attackers (NOT attacking foreigners) are all actual legitimate functions of government. Asset management, wealth transfer, trade protectionism, and safety net construction are not.

  10. The possibility that Soros is right cannot be discounted. What does he mean by forever? The rest of our lives, our children’s lives, our great great grandchildren’s lives. Look at Japan. Their stock market never recovered its former glory and the Japanese sign 120 year mortgages, work their asses off, live in paper houses etc. That could be what’s in store for us, a long protracted recession with no end in sight. The central banks have been telling us for years that we can have our cake and eat it too. Not so, the inevitable day of reckoning always comes. Soros could be wrong but it would be some sort of miracle if he were. Not seeing a prolonged recession in our future is like saying someone won’t gain weight eating 5000 calories a day, spending all day on the couch and drinking unlimited beer.

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