What Are the Odds of a Depression?

International evidence suggests there is a 20% chance a stock-market crash will lead to worse.

2 thoughts on “What Are the Odds of a Depression?

  1. Well, just about the same chance of a winning trade in a trend following system… hard to happen, but when it does, big moves, big gains!
    PS: (I do hope I lose in this “depression trade”! )

  2. Odds of?


    How about: Odds Are 100% that we ARE in one now.

    Severe – not yet. I’d guarantee it will be 80% chance it will be severe.

    Official unemployment we all know is cooked with the new/small company birth death rate. Williams paints it at 18%, we have cliff diving in: Real estate, mfg, office space, retail space, retail, hotel, car sales, the market is tanking and now the momos at the big houses are telling investors to move into cash bah bye market hello dollar (for a little). We have wave 2 (alt-a’s and opt. arms) inbound. We have a deficit this year that rivals most countries total GDP. Credit card defaults are going up.

    If the consumer accounts for 70% of GDP and they have no credit then the momos can give all the tax money they want to the banks and companies. It won’t work.

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