Expert Predictions Go Expertly Wrong

Dale D. writes me with a good reminder that we all know intuitively, but forget:


I wanted some expert advice on possible directions of oil, natural gas and gold prices. I typed, “Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Price Predictions” into Google. I did not include a date with my query, so I received a list of predictions from newsletter writers and analysts going back about four years. I read through the complete list of predictions. Absolutely fascinating!

So how did the “experts” do? A couple were close to what actually happened, but by far the majority — more than 95% — were completely, totally, one hundred percent wrong! Gold did NOT hit $1000 to $1500 an ounce by the end of 2006 and the price of oil did NOT crash down to $40/barrel this spring. So much for the experts. Lesson learned: Do NOT rely on the experts. They are either outright wrong or have an agenda with their hands in your pockets.

Dale D.