The Folly of Predictions

I was emailed a quote today from Ulf af Trolle (Swedish business consultant):

“If you really have to make an economical prediction, then follow this golden rule: Make the prediction optimistic. If you are right, then you will get a reputation to be extraordinary skilled. If you are wrong people will sympathize with you. At least you did your best. If you instead make a pessimistic prediction, and get it wrong, then you are a klutz. And if you are right, then you will be blamed for creating the situation.”

A very nice summation on the folly of predictions!

---
You might like my 2017 epic release: Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets (Fifth Edition). Revised and extended with twice as much content.