I was emailed a quote today from Ulf af Trolle (Swedish business consultant):
“If you really have to make an economical prediction, then follow this golden rule: Make the prediction optimistic. If you are right, then you will get a reputation to be extraordinary skilled. If you are wrong people will sympathize with you. At least you did your best. If you instead make a pessimistic prediction, and get it wrong, then you are a klutz. And if you are right, then you will be blamed for creating the situation.”
A very nice summation on the folly of predictions!