Can You Accept A World of Probabilities?

Michael, As I suspect is the case of most of your informed readers, I’ve been enjoying tremendously the illogical ramblings you’ve been posting lately on your blog (e.g. Looking for a Trend, Much Ado About Nothing, etc.). It is amazing how many people just don’t “get it”. They seem to have great difficulty accepting a key concept: Trying to predict the future is impossible because of the complexity of the environment. The conventional deterministic logic that allowed the human race to survive in pre-history (i.e. finding a “reason” that explains how things happen) doesn’t work when analyzing complex systems. I studied physics in college, and I remember that once we went from the Newtonian deterministic world to that of Quantum Mechanics (which only gives you PROBABILITIES of particles being in a certain location of space/time) everyone had a difficult time grasping the concept (myself included). As numerous studies have shown, our brain isn’t “wired” to think in terms of probabilities, conceivably due to how our ancestors evolved millions of years ago – which I think is all to the good! If the majority of people understood probabilities and the limits of deterministic thinking (unlike the sloppy thinkers that you’ve posted), we might not be able to make money in the market using relatively straight forward trend following strategies. So all I can say is hooray for all the “Cave Men” out there!! Best regards, A. A.