Trade Deficit Question

Yesterday after a presentation in Japan one question came forward about the U.S. trade deficit. This very well respected gentleman noted that it was a great trend and asked for my forecast of the trend, i.e. where it will lead, etc. His question came after my presentation, which was all about the inability to predict the direction or magnitude of any type of trend. Later outside the conference hall a trader came up and said that he liked what I had to say, but he wanted lots more details. He wanted me to get into the nitty gritty of my book and various white papers on this site.

Do you see the contradictions in one sample audience? One side doesn’t really grasp the fine points of a trend following mind set and the other side sees it all too well, but speaks “above” most people’s understanding. I would argue that anyone who trades like a trend follower should lower the high brow educational approach and explain the details in plain terms. It’s clear not everyone gets it yet.