Not Seeing ‘It’

Feedback from a reader the other day:

“I just listened to one of your audio comments [about] getting on trends when they are already fully developed. Would this be the case with the Sugar trend at the moment? I understand it hit much higher highs in 1974 and 1981.”

That is part of the idea, yes. But I am not saying don’t get on, I am saying have a plan. He responded:

“Thanks Michael, briefly how do you see this trend in comparison to 1974 and 1981?”

What do you mean? He responded:

“I just put Sugar charts [from] 1974 and 1981 on the window against each other up to the sun. They are virtually the same price formation. You never can tell, but the 2006 chart seems only to be in the early stages of the super spike trend as you call it. The same type of fundamentals are here: ethanol, oil. I read Jim Rogers ‘Hot Commodities’. He believes we are in a secular commodities bull. Hard to disagree. I am late, but I think in reality it is only just the beginning. Managing price corrections and stops the name of the day. What do you think?”

You already told me you read my book, but you are asking for a fundamental opinion? I have no idea what will happen in the future. Follow the trend with rules is the best strategy I can offer.