Does this seem valid? Or is it entirely subjective?
“All three major U.S. stock-market indexes ended their respective early millennium bear markets by way of triple bottoms with lows in July 2002, a lower low in October and a higher low in March 2003. Since then, they’ve all been following a certain upward-trending slope. For the Nasdaq Composite, you can go back to the Oct. 10, 2002, bear-market low of 1,108 and draw a line connecting the lows of March 12, 2003 (1,253), Aug. 13, 2004 (1,750), and March 29, 2005 (1,968). And now Monday’s low of 1,972. This is a classic complete uptrend with a clear five waves: the bulls’ initial test rally (two-month surge to December 2002 high of 1,521); the denial by bears (two-month dip to March 2003 low); the acknowledgement of the new trend by both parties (the longest and most powerful stage, with a 10-month rally to January 2004 high of 2,153); a brief rest and consolidation period (seven-month decline to August 2004 low of 1,750); and then the final exhaustion rally (five-month run to January 2005 high of 2,191). In this Elliott Wave Theory scenario, the current decline indicates the uptrend should now undergo a three-wave correction. And that is why there might be a bounce; the recent decline could be the first wave of a decline. But given what the Nasdaq has done recently, it won’t be because new buyers are entering the market or old buyers are adding to positions, but because the trend line would provide a convenient reason for sellers to book some profit by partially closing positions.”