Ep. 555: Denise Shull Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Denise Shull
Denise Shull

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Denise Shull is a performance and decision coach to traders and athletes. She is well known for her effectiveness in assessing performance under high pressure situations. Denise began her Wall Street career in 1994 as trader and desk manager on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. She was always fascinated by the psychology side of trading from the outset of her trading career. In 2015 she offered critical insight on how to put together one of the main characters of the hit show “Billions” on Showtime.

Denise has counseled an extremely wide variety of traders with all kinds of personalities and trading styles. However, at the end of the day everyone is human and all traders have common psychological threads which she points out. When Denise analyzes a client she tries to understand a sequence of feelings that person is making and what the patterns of their feelings are. At first it is just about her figuring out how a clients brain works, and then she helps them see the patterns.

What was the trigger for Denise to go down the path of studying the mind and human behavior? Starting from a young age she enjoyed observing and counseling friends. In her mid to late 20’s she started looking at her friends relationships and seeing that the people were all different but the scenarios were the same. A teacher helped point out a theory of Freud’s. Freud believed there is a critical period for attachment and self image when you are a child. Denise gives examples of how human reactions stem from a template made in the first 2-3 years of life.

Michael and Denise finish up talking fractals, psycho analytics, efficient market theory and compare notes on Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bio-psychology
  • Attachment theory
  • Neurosciences
  • Conviction as data
  • Fractal emotions
  • Efficient market theory
  • Self blame as a positive

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Ep. 554: The Yale Model with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Yale Endowment
Yale Endowment

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The Yale Endowment is the crème de la crème. Nothing beats it? Their AUM is about 25 billion. Michael evaluates and reads some of the 2016 copy of The Yale Endowment. He wants listeners to decide if it is an example of how the best think, or if it is how one of the best operations self-describes themselves. Michael ends with breaking apart an excerpt from a presentation that David Swensen gave on his portfolio management strategy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Yale Endowment
  • Portfolio management
  • Black box trading
  • Mean variance analysis
  • Harry Markowitz
  • Passive index
  • Forecasting

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Ep. 553: Andy Molinsky Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Andy Molinsky
Andy Molinsky

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Andy Molinsky author of “Reach: A New Strategy to Help You Step Outside Your Comfort Zone” is on the podcast. Everyone can learn better ways to push themselves and step outside of their comfort zone. Andy and Mike help show listeners how to get there.

If we can’t find ways to sacrifice comfort, how do we obtain future success? There is some truth to living on the edge of your comfort zone. However, sometimes it is perfectly OK to stay in your comfort zone, like trading in the stock market. There are times to play it safe and there are times to take the leap. Often there is a lot of work that goes into taking a leap that is commonly overlooked. Having a person to hold you accountable, push you, or just let you know when an idea is good or not can be a critical building block to your success.

How you execute an idea is also monumental to creating success. Taking uncomfortable steps is often necessary to get projects off the ground. Andy uses the story of Neil Kennedy as an example. Neil had a comparable website to Facebook before Facebook was around. He was shy and uncomfortable talking to venture capitalists and wasn’t able to move forward in getting his project off the ground. Because of this, Facebook succeeded and Neil failed.

Five core challenges to stepping out of your comfort zone that Andy points out are: 1. Authenticity challenge 2. Likeability challenge 3. Competence challenge 4. Resentment challenge and 5. Morality challenge. You may not experience all of these challenges but they are a nice road map to help single out your weak points. Mike and Andy finish up their conversation talking about presentations and how to engage an audience.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Stepping outside your comfort zone
  • Accepting failure
  • Creating challenges of yourself
  • Fear of failure as motivation
  • How to present in front of an audience

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Ep. 552: Mega Eclectic Number Two with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Fun Picture Serious Subject
Fun Picture Serious Subject

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Today is another mega episode featuring Douglas Emlen, Toby Crabel, Robert Aumann, Ryan Holiday, Sally Hogshead and Michael Mauboussin.

Douglas Emlen is a professor at the University of Montana. He is the recipient of the Presidential Early Career Award in Science and Engineering from the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. He has also earned multiple research awards from the National Science Foundation, including their five-year CAREER award.

Toby Crabel is founder of Crabel Capital Management. His approach is very different from Covel’s, but there are some commonalities: price action driven, systems, models, risk management. Crabel works on a whole different timeframe than the typical trend follower, typically turning his portfolio over in less than a day. Crabel, a former pro tennis player, has a philosophical nature and discusses how he executes these philosophies in the trading world.

Robert Aumann is an Israeli-American mathematician and a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences. He is a professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel. Aumann is the 4th Nobel Prize Laureate in economics to be a guest on the podcast.

Ryan Holiday is an American author, writer, and marketer. He is the media strategist behind authors Tucker Max and Robert Greene, the former Director of Marketing for American Apparel and an editor-at-large for the New York Observer.

Sally Hogshead is an American speaker, author, former advertising executive, as well as the Chief Executive Officer of Fascinate, Inc. Hogshead’s newest book is “How The World Sees You: Discover Your Highest Value Through The Science of Fascination.”

Michael Mauboussin is an author, investment strategist in the financial services industry, professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Business, and serves on the board of trustees at the Sante Fe Institute (an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute). He is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advises clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Humans and animals
  • International hacking
  • Game theory
  • Economics
  • World champions of peace
  • The book writing process
  • Flow state
  • Personal branding
  • Multi-disciplinary thinking
  • Luck vs. Skill
  • Outcome bias

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Ep. 551: Jack Schwager Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jack Schwager
Jack Schwager

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Jack Schwager is author of the Market Wizards series and just completed his second edition of A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Trading, Spreads, and Options. Jack has gone into great detail updating his 1984 original edition with over 600 pages of educational insights.

At the beginning of his trading career technical analysis never made much sense. However, as he worked in markets over the years, he came to see that those who used charts and technical analysis tended to make more money. He also saw that fundamental analysis almost goes against the idea of money management. He found that the same went for risk management: How does risk management work with a truly fundamental perspective? It doesn’t for most.

The basics of futures trading for most is fuzzy. Jack gives a short summation of the basics: 1. Futures are very liquid. 2. They trade for every type of instrument you could think of. 3. You can go short or long just as easy. 4. Futures are truly a zero sum game. 5. They are real markets and have real fundamentals pushing trends. 6. Basic trends do have some sort of rational behind them in futures markets and the skilled fundamental players will beat the unskilled players if they are good at assessing probabilities. Michael and Jack finish talking about trading as an art vs. science, whipsaws, failure to exploit major trends, drawdowns and the efficient market hypothesis.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamentals vs. Technical analysis
  • Risk management
  • Contrarian view on fundamentals
  • Charting
  • Science vs. art in trading
  • Whipsaws
  • Exploiting trends
  • Sharpe ratio
  • Efficient market hypothesis

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Ep. 550: Tesla Dreams with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Fun Picture Serious Subject
Fun Picture Serious Subject

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Michael reads, “Sparks Fly on Wall Street Over Tesla’s Current Valuation: The electric carmaker overtook GM in market capitalization last week. Is this just a bubble – or is battery tech the future?” Michael uses the piece to drive home the point that nobody knows why one stocks price is high or low. All that matters is the price. There is no way to know all of the fundamentals. Bottom line, Tesla stands around $300 a share. It is a waste of time to try and figure out why. Make sure you have your stops in place and enjoy the ride.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Tesla stock price
  • Seeing the world through a different lens
  • Fake News
  • Trading off price alone

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Ep. 549: Scott Hartley with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Scott Hartley
Scott Hartley

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Scott Hartley is a venture capitalist and startup advisor. He has served as a Presidential Innovation Fellow at the White House, a partner at Mohr Davidow Ventures, and a venture partner at Metamorphic Ventures. Prior to venture capital, Hartley worked at Google, Facebook, and Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet & Society. He is a contributing author to the MIT Press book Shopping for Good, and has written for publications such as the Financial Times, Inc., Foreign Policy, Forbes, and the Boston Review. Hartley speaks on global entrepreneurship with MIT, the World Bank, Google, and the U.S. State Department. He holds an MBA and an MA from Columbia University, and a BA from Stanford University. He is a term member at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Hartley is the author of “The Fuzzy and the Techie: Why the Liberal Arts Will Rule the Digital World.” Scott brings a wealth of knowledge from across Silicon Valley and beyond to the subject. He gives a perspective: What kind of background do most techie’s start with? The term “fuzzy” relates to liberal arts and “techie” to computer science and electrical engineering.

Michael and Scott also discuss Mark Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg is a curious skeptic. He challenges norms, is deeply curious about science fiction, and has many interests outside of the technical world. How do we know where this curiosity came from? Where did Zuckerberg and other successful techies cultivate their curiosity? Michael and Scott give insight into these questions and finish up the podcast discussing the ethical and moral implications of technology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Ethical side of technology
  • Addictions on top of addiction
  • Artificial intelligence
  • Curiosity and skepticism
  • Frontier markets
  • Liberal arts in the technical world
  • Myth busting the standard path to a tech career

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