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Ep. 382: Dissecting Duplicity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Dissecting Duplicity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Dissecting Duplicity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trend following: a system, not a theory
  • Opinions are worthless without strategy
  • The mainstream media’s continued attacks on trend following
  • No one knows the future – embrace the idea
  • Theories are conjecture
  • Focus on the now – that’s the indicator

“So there is a bubble element to what we see, but I’m not sure the current situation is a classic bubble, because I’m not certain that most people have extravagant expectations.” – Robert Shiller

Mentions & Resources:

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Ep. 380: Lessons from Ken Tropin with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Ken Tropin
Ken Tropin

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Please enjoy my monologue Lessons from Ken Tropin with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Recognizing that without a strategy, you’re at the mercy of the machine
  • Embracing uncertainty
  • Understanding that knowing every market move won’t help without a plan
  • The importance of setting your strategy beforehand
  • Seeing that media personalities are paid to pretend to know all
  • How the principles of trend following apply to other disciplines

“Trend following is one of the most mature and well-established systematic trading styles with a thirty-three year track record of profitability.” – Ken Tropin

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Ep. 379: John Casti Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

John Casti
John Casti

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My guest today is John Casti, an internationally-recognized complexity scientist and best-selling popular science author, mathematician, and entrepreneur. He has written more than 120 scientific articles, seven technical monographs and textbooks on mathematical modeling, and sixteen books on popular science. His book, Alternate Realities, was awarded the Association of American Publishers prize. Prey for Me is his first work of fiction.

The topics are his books X-Events: The Collapse of Everything and Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The fundamentals of socionomics
  • The science of surprise
  • Understanding that social mood is time-dependent
  • How X-events can trigger mood reversals
  • Isolating the collective social belief
  • The mindset of “the crowd”

“So you’re gonna have a lot of small losers. But, hopefully, you have a few homeruns that pay for the losers and leave you something extra for your efforts.” – John Casti

Mentions & Resources:

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Ep. 377: Annie Duke Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Annie Duke
Annie Duke

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My guest today is Annie Duke, an author, corporate speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space. As a former professional poker player, Annie won more than $4 million in tournament poker before retiring from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is also a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute.

The topic is trading and gambling.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Focusing on the process instead of the outcome
  • Understanding that it’s about your return, not you winning percentage
  • Recognizing that in investing, consistency is unnatural
  • Thinking probabilistically
  • Maximizing your expectancy
  • Understanding that a loss doesn’t necessarily reflect bad thinking

“When you focus on outcome over process you actually reduce innovation in your company.” – Annie Duke

Mentions & Resources:

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Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

“The Secrets Have Finally Been Harnessed!”

Feedback in:

Since I’ve been following your books and podcasts, I view [promotional] email blasts (I must receive 10-15 a day) from the investment community with a whole different attitude. I used to read them with the eagerness of a novice seeking wisdom at the master’s feet. Now, not so much. I’ve been a financial advisor for 25 years and I’ve grown so very tired of the “I wasn’t wrong, I was just early” attitude taken by Wall Street research departments and pundits. The stock market will indeed correct 10%, maybe 15% or 20%, but waiting for [that] while our currency implodes seems not only foolish but downright arrogant. It’s not so much what is [in the promo fluff] that bothers me but the implied subtext that I find offensive and so very wrong. Thank you Mike for all you do – keep shining the light. You are helping me help hundreds.

Welcome!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Gotta Lie To Get Invited Back

After posting the below commentary on my Facebook page I got an interesting response:

This exchange followed:

Alan: Thank you for your thoughtful analysis of my market commentary March 16th. A “Trend Follower” should appreciate my confidence and reasoning that the bull run is still intact. As a market veteran of 25 years with thousands of TV appearances this may be a great opportunity to discuss the insignificance of news nonsense with your podcast listeners. Pick a time I would like to come on to talk media and its negative impact on trading discipline. I am the first to tell traders to turn off the TV as there is very little to help you make money. It is mostly infotainment to keep you emotional and tuned in to pay advertisers. In fact, I have developed a financial news aggregator to search, sort and share market video. The time saving app breaks down the markets into categories and plots the videos from news sources on price and time charts for perspective. That said I make the best effort to give a well thought out actionable trade idea on each of my appearances as opposed to speaking in broad generalizations. Trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. It should be methodical and boring and as we all know watching television to cheer lead positions does not add to profitability. Looking forward to schedule the podcast interview.

Covel: Hold on. You are the guy on CNN? The guy with videos literally every day providing near useless fundamental factoids and interpretations of what will happen next? And now you are emailing me to say trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. Don’t you think that is disingenuous? You tell me you have made 1000s of appearances, but [now] you tell people not to watch? I am not [Jim] Cramer. My podcast is not that. Best we agree to disagree right here, unless you can convince me how my eyes are lying to me when I watch your videos of broad generalizations.

Alan: I cannot change the game if I do not appear on TV. Producers and hosts do not understand the markets and create a crisis de jour. My job is to be optimistic of opportunities in any and all market conditions. Stressing a plan of action instead of fear is what I do. Having CNBC on for 10 hours a day or watching Cramer doesn’t help anybody make money. At best it may give 2-3 nuggets of information that could be explored for profit potential. People think news helps when in fact the WHY is of no importance compared to the HOW the market is moving.

Covel: You can’t let the TV hand feed you non-stop and then bite the same hand. None of what you are saying to me was on CNN.

Alan: I gave CNN reasons why I remain optimistic at a time when investors have renewed fears. Calm confidence. Participating in the TV discussion is more productive than not doing so to showcase my disciplined approach. My development of the [name] shows my recognition of this news noise issue and the need to better inform investors.

Covel: Maybe you know the truth, but to appear on TV so much is for you to play a game–their game. Try appearing on TV and tell the real truth. They won’t ask you back. Then you will have made a real advance in your credibility.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Thomson Reuters Hedge Funds Team Teaches You…

Excerpt:

Across this series of webcasts, our expert speakers will cover some of the most topical subjects in the world of hedge fund management today. In our next session, scheduled for tomorrow, Dr Svetlana Borovkova, Associate Professor at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam provide you with a broad overview of how various commodity markets respond to news and how this information can be used in trading strategies, investment decisions, risk management and for overall improvement in efficiency of quant-based models. We examine the main commodity classes: energy, agriculturals and metals, as well as various market responses to news, in terms of prices, returns, volatilities and trading volumes. Market responses are analysed for different latencies, ranging from minutes to days and to longer horizons.

100% bullshit.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.