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Surprise, Surprise, Surprise: Prediction Doesn’t Work

Excerpt: “This has basically never happened before in my whole life. I can remember 1½ percent rates. It certainly surprised all the economists. It surprised the people who created the life insurance industry in Japan, who basically all went broke

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Posted in Economics, Holy Grails, Trend Following

Brexit Hysteria Might Be Contagious

Feedback in: Good morning from the U.S., I wonder how many fundamental analysts could have “predicted” the market’s reaction to the Brexit news. It amazes me how many people still believe these “experts” on TV know what they are talking

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Posted in Economics, Trend Following

Financial Predictions v. Weather Predictions

Feedback in: Michael, I just wanted to take a moment to thank you for your work. I have read most of your books and they are exactly what I needed. You see I am a veteran of the brokerage business

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Posted in Feedback, Trend Following

Ep. 424: The Wizard Jeremy Siegel Filleted on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel profiles Jeremy Siegel. Jeremy describes himself as “The Wizard of Wharton.” His website claims that he is credited with contributing and expanding the great bull market

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Posted in Holy Grails, Multimedia, Podcasts, Trend Following

Trading Food For Thought: January 19th Edition

Interesting reads: The Most Dangerous Equation The WTF and LOL Economy…The World’s First Digital Recession The Rise of Behavioral Economics: Richard Thaler’s ‘Misbehaving’ Managing the Man Overboard Moment The Bedrock of Portfolio Management How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting

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Posted in Economics, Psychology, Trading 101, Trend Following

Trading Food For Thought: January 13th Edition

Interesting reads: What made Charles Darwin an Effective Thinker? Follow the Golden Rule MiB: Michael Covel New Year, Old-Fashioned Investment Strategy Engineered societies Stanley Druckenmiller Lost Tree Club 1-18-15 Daniel Kahneman in Conversation with Michael Mauboussin on Intuition, Causality, Loss

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Posted in Multimedia, Psychology, Systems Trading, Trading 101, Trend Following

Trading Food For Thought: December 22st Edition

Interesting reads: Momentum: Slip Counterfactuals, the “Stale Price” Effect, and the Future Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters 39% Of Stocks Have A Negative Lifetime Total Return Investment strategy: It’s hard to find the winners but maybe easier to identify (and

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Posted in Economics, Psychology, Trading 101, Trend Following
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