My guest today is Peter Borish, the chief strategist of Quad Capital. He works as a trading coach and helps recruit new traders and develop the company’s trading strategy. He also is a founding member of the Robin Hood Foundation. The Robin Hood Foundation has made great strides in their charity work and are continuing to do bigger and better things. Peter believes that the quality of life for those around you is much more important than the material possessions that can be accumulated.
The topic is trading.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Politics
Robin Hood Foundation
Risk management
Discretionary trading
Having objectivity in your trading
Kelly criteria
Own up to your mistakes
“Everyone trades too large relative to their perceived edge.” – Peter Borish
We can never stand in the way of market moves – nobody is big enough aside from those with the deepest of all pockets and even then their luck may just run out?
However the sheer stupidity of market reactions continues to the point that I believe most market participants simply are not accepting we are living in a different World following Trumps win and Brexit.
Take today’s move lower in the Pound [ To be fair a small move lower in the Far East on headlines that May will be outlining her case for a hard Brexit shortly] – The weekend news is quite possibly the most bullish news I’ve seen for Sterling in my 30 year career trading fx markets. Here’s – for dummies – what has really been said over the weekend.
Picture of Fifty Pound Notes by Images Money; CC. Should you Follow the Trend?
Trump – I will immediately put a sizeable trade deal in place with the UK – front of the que as I am a huge believer in Brexit and as the World’s largest market the U.S will offer Britain free access on favourable terms which will boost jobs, investment and prosperity in the UK massively. As far as Europe is concerned they can go screw themselves – I am not on the same page as Merkel on anything – Europe is heading for a disaster and I am already thinking about tariffs on German products in the U.S. – BMW for example.
Meanwhile the UK government announces that it may slash UK taxes to play hardball with Europe – meaning vast increases in UK competitiveness versus Europe which means anyone else clinging on to the pipe dream that business will leave the UK and relocate to Europe – a socialist / anti-entrepreneurial cesspit of high taxes and bureaucracy then for God’s sake wake up and smell the coffee. That leaves the UK as in its strongest position for decades with the prospect of not only globally driven growth and exports surges but as a safe haven for when Europe falls to pieces and likely to see massive currency inflows into the UK.
It doesn’t get any better than this for the UK which is why my targets for Sterling over the next 3 years are very simply 0.2 for Euro / Stg and 2 for cable – easy peasey – and that’s extremely conservative.
Am I long? No I’m short Sterling right here because the price action is giving no reason to back these views at all – but when it does we will flip that is for sure. Never trade my view or opinion as many of you know but if I’m right then the price action should confirm and the Pound against the Dollar needs to break at least 1.35 to show signs of life.
Meanwhile – for me – quite possibly the second best trade out there is selling the DAX. Global imports on German goods, Germany picking up the bill for a disintegrating Europe and the demolition of German values in future years only point to one direction for the German stock market. I look for a long slow move to 6000 in the Dax with the first signals this move is underway coming when it breaks 10,500 without making a new high in this particular cycle.
And as for the market clinging on t0 2010-2015 “type” solutions with bad news is good news for stocks – just remember when the shit hits the fan – what QE? Trump is a free marketer and if markets need to head a long way lower – then that’s where they should be!
My guest today is Ayn Rand. Rand is best known for her two best selling novels, “The Fountainhead” and “Atlas Shrugged.” Michael plays two clips of Donahue interviewing Rand. Rand is controversial, but her thinking is accurate and clear. She breaks down altruism, government regulation, free market, monopoly, God, feminism, terrorism, and many more topics. You may not agree with her on all points, but there is inspiration to be taken away from her passion and to-the-point thinking.
The topic is Objectivism.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Altruism
Government regulation
Acting on faith
Living by emotion, not reason
Women’s rights
Religion
Monopoly
Spending money on the un-gifted minds rather than the gifted
I finished up listening to your podcast with Mike Lofgren on “The Deep State” and felt the urge to just thank you for a very interesting, informative, provocative, but essential discussion. Ironically, the issues you discussed are standard dinner table topics for me and my family (I’d consider ourselves different from the norm in a good way). Unfortunately, today’s farrago of reality TV shows, sports, and social issues have become red herrings to the more important topics. Why discuss the vexing and complicated issues when we can just talk about the Kardashians or whether bathrooms should be genderless?… At any rate, look forward to more discussions on your podcast.
PS: I have also been working in investments for a couple years but would could consider myself a “new” trader. At the end of your podcast you mentioned you’d send some trend following steps. I currently use a nuanced Tom Demark Indicator system, but I’m always open to learning something new.
Please enjoy my monologue Living by Your Own Rules with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Good decision-making through clarity
Examining identity politics
Operating under your own rules
Political correctness: it’s about agendas
Good trading means using your system and your mind
The importance of staying focused
“We’ve been crippled by social security, Medicare, Medicaid, by welfare, by entitlements. And that is the root of the problem. Entitlements. Let me be clear…You are entitled to nothing.” – Frank Underwood
“There is an unsentimental logic to markets. If you make a bad investment, you are supposed to pay the full price — because if you don’t pay the full price, you will keep making bad investments. The only way to get the bond market back to its historic role is to make bondholders feel real fear that they might lose money if they make bad decisions. We need the market to reward bets that are economically wise, instead of those that are politically savvy.”
Wonder if we ever get there….
Name: We will get back there because our government will run out of money like the Greeks’ government. Ours will be painful too.
My guest today is David Stockman. Those that follow business and politics in the United States will recognize his name. Stockman has been a businessman, a Congressman, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.
The topic is his book The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Woodrow Wilson piece
How Wilson brought the US into World War I and how the pain of the 1930’s and the pivot point of the 20th century was connected
Why the ATM’s going dark in 2008 wasn’t a true possibility
Zero interest rate policy and how we’re forcing people to spend down principal
How the Fed can generate massive bubbles
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