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Tag: nobel prize winner

Ep. 423: Angus Deaton Interview With Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Angus Deaton
Angus Deaton

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My guest today is Angus Deaton, the fifth Nobel Prize winner to appear on this podcast. Deaton is a British American economist, and currently a Senior Scholar and the Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor of Economics and International Affairs Emeritus at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the Economics Department at Princeton University. His research focuses primarily on poverty, inequality, health, wellbeing, and economic development. In 2015, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare.

The topic is his book The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Unemployment
  • Minimum Wage
  • Poverty
  • Economics
  • Money and happiness
  • The birth lottery

“In periods where there has been a tremendous amount of innovation, there is typically a very large increase in inequality.” – Angus Deaton

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Ep. 235: Harry Markowitz Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Harry Markowitz
Harry Markowitz

My guest today is Harry Markowitz, the third Nobel Prize winner to appear on this podcast. Markowitz is an American economist who received the 1989 John von Neumann Theory Prize and the 1990 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Markowitz is a professor of finance at the Rady School of Management at the University of California, San Diego.

The topic is modern finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Justin Fox and “The Myth Of The Rational Market”
  • Markowitz’s beginnings, and the Nobel Prize
  • Markowitz’s 1952 paper
  • How Markowitz felt about some of his prescriptions and ideas being interpreted into dogma
  • Why Wall Street was not interested in Markowitz’s theories at one time
  • Diversification for the right reason
  • Markowitz’s new four-volume book
  • Advice on maintaining mental acuity at an advanced age and sounding like you’re 35 when you’re 86 years young
  • Markowitz’s attraction to the philosopher Hume
  • If it was fifty years later, if Markowitz would be a quant running a hedge fund today
  • Markowitz’s legacy
  • On being comfortable vs. being rich
  • The leveraged long-only hedge fund industry and being coaxed into putting your money into these institutions
  • Long Term Capital Management and portfolio theory

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Fascinating Insights From Nobel Prize-Winner Robert Shiller

Posted on by Michael Covel

Jim Byers passes along:

On why so many experts missed the 2008 financial crisis: “Experts have always missed big events like this. If you look at the record of statistical forecasting models, they tend to get to the recession when it’s starting to come. A casual observer might start to worry about it. Forecasting it years out, they don’t get; in particular, if you look at the Great Depression of the 1930s, nobody forecasted that. Zero. Nobody. Now there were, of course, some guys who were saying the stock market is overpriced and it would come down, but if you look at what they said, did that mean a depression is coming? A decade-long depression? That was never said.”

On short-term thinking: “I think that there’s too much faith in analysis of short-term data. You see some pattern, and you can do a statistical test and prove that will prove that it is significant or passes the smell test to a statistician. But the problem is, the world is always changing. It’s not a stable thing. The underlying human parameters may be stable, but you can see that there is institutional and cultural evolution, and it’s not something that you can quantify.”

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