Ep. 539: Susan Peirce Thompson Interview with Michael Covel

Susan Peirce Thompson
Susan Peirce Thompson

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Susan Peirce Thompson is author of “Bright Line Eating.” This is a podcast all about “aha” moments. Most have no understanding of how their bodies take in, and absorb food. Susan’s BHAG (big hairy audacious goal) is to make sure that all those who want to put forth the effort of losing weight and keeping it off have a road map.

Susan had trouble losing weight starting at age 12. She found early on that the only thing that worked for her was using drugs, specifically crystal meth. During her 20’s she was able to get off the hard drugs, but then became addicted to nicotine, sex, flour, and sugar. The turning point for her was when she decided to do a bikini body 12 week challenge with her husband. They were suppose to work out 6 days a week and eat 6 times a day. Her husband did great on the program, Susan did not. She wasn’t able to keep with the eating schedule.

She ended up running into an old friend that told her about a different way of eating. Her friend gave her the cliff notes version of a no flour or sugar diet—combined with weighing your food. Susan ended up quitting the bikini challenge and started down this new path of eating. She began losing weight instantly. This lead to her going back and reverse engineering why the program worked. She started Bright line eating in 2014 and started doing a scientific study on the results of the participants.

80% of food sold in the super market has added sugar. 60% of one year olds are fed sugar every day. Susan explains why it is so hard to have the brain let go of the need for sugar. The dopamine release in sugar is the same type of dopamine release that occurs when using drugs or having sex. Doughnuts and pornography give a dopamine release that is larger than the body is trained for. What happens over time is your need for stimulation rises. There is a need to keep it sustained.

What is the solution? You need to automate your eating just like brushing your teeth is automated. There is no impulse control, just automatic. There needs to be no choosing involved. 80% execution of this program is so much harder than going 100% all in. It’s a system.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • BHAG
  • Sugar is an addiction
  • How to handle withdrawal from sugar
  • Drinking calories vs. eating calories
  • The radish study
  • Willpower is a finite resource
  • Regulating task performance

“Hunger is not satisfied by eating.” – Susan Peirce Thompson

Mentions & Resources:

Want a FREE Trend Following Video? Get it here.

Ep. 535: Brad Rotter Interview #3 with Michael Covel on Trend Following

Brad Rotter
Brad Rotter

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

This is Brad Rotter’s 3rd appearance on the show. He is well known in financial circles as being the first investor with Richard Dennis. As a venture capitalist, Brad has helped launch numerous new enterprises. Our conversation today takes you in the mind of how a venture capitalist thinks and describes how he views new opportunity, particularly his newest investment: desalinization of water.

What is your process? How do you explain venture capitalism? Brad grew up on a farm in Iowa and became interested in futures contracts. This made him interested in investing in the future and he quickly began to see things a little differently than the “normal” world. Brad made his first hedge fund investment in 1982. At that time hedge funds were a very inefficient market. He would look at managers that had a special niche, grasp what they were doing, and invest.

Brad looks for long term trends when he invests in ideas and companies. Technology brought him to California. His current venture is providing fresh water across the world. The one crisis facing humanity that has a solution is fresh water and it is now an invisible water emergency. Brad says, “We don’t really have a water problem, we have a salt problem.” Brad goes in depth describing the processes of desalination and the infrastructure, or rather the mobile infrastructure involved.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Venture capitalism
  • Turtles
  • Efficient market theory
  • Mobile infrastructure
  • Desalination

Mentions & Resources:

Want a FREE Trend Following Video? Get it here.

Ep. 533: Donald Hoffman Interview with Michael Covel

Donald Hoffman
Donald Hoffman

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Donald Hoffman is a cognitive scientist at UC Irvine. He studies how our visual perception, guided by millions of years of natural selection, authors every aspect of our everyday reality. His research is about uncovering the underlying secrets of human perception. Donald has discovered clues that point to our subjective nature of reality. According to Donald, we actively create everything we see. Donald started to learn how to program at a very early age. This is what got him thinking: Are we just machines, or actual humans?

Donald began to be bothered by the reality that we might not be seeing what our eyes are seeing. Do we see reality as it really is? Almost all of us have a belief that we see the world as it is. Michael and Donald go in depth about certain illusions and truths that may be hidden from the main public. Illusions are everywhere when you start looking. Evolution shaped us with certain perceptions and interfaces that we, as humans, evolved to keep us alive. Whether or not those perceptions are real or fake is irrelevant. As long as they keep us feeling happy and alive, that is all that matters. Natural selection has also led us to the reality we see. The only thing that matters in natural selection is fitness. Fitness according to natural selection is not based on physical fitness but rather if you are able to reproduce. That is the only criteria.

Michael and Donald end the podcast posing the question: Do humans have the capacity to even understand what the true reality is?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Are we robot or human?
  • Evolution
  • Reality vs. Perception of reality
  • Natural selection
  • Pushing theories to their limits

Mentions & Resources:

Want a FREE Trend Following DVD? Get it here.

Ep 531: Mark Rzepczynski Interview #2 with Michael Covel

Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Mark Rzepczynski is the CEO of AMPHI Capital Management and has a deep knowledge of trading, especially trend following trading.

Simplicity beats complexity every time. Unfortunately, people crave more complex. With trend following, traders keep it simple. They just want to get the direction of the trade right. Trend followers don’t care about what the price will be or how far it will go, they just go back to the basics and see what way the trend is going, up or down.

The ability to simply follow the math has always been undervalued. Risk management is about the math of selling losers and hanging onto winners. It isn’t hard math to do, but this is what separates successful managers from losing ones. Successful managers build a portfolio, follow the trends and execute trades properly.

Harry Markowitz said, “If I would have created CAPM around semi variance no one would have understood the math and I would not have won the Nobel Prize.” Mark breaks this quote from Markowitz apart. He dives into good volatility vs bad volatility.

Fake news has been the premise of the 2017 presidential election. But is fake news new? Every time you see a government announcement come out saying they are revising their data, that is fake news. GDP numbers, unemployment, etc. are examples of fake our outdated news that cannot be depended on. We know that prices move and fluctuate from day to day, but trend followers can do things to smooth the uncertainty and prepare with a toolbox of rules such as staying diversified and having crisis alpha.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Controlling volatility
  • Style diversification
  • Long term vs. Short term managers
  • Simplicity beats complexity
  • Quant trading

“Price is primal.” – Mark Rzepczynski

Mentions & Resources:

Want a FREE Trend Following DVD? Get it here.

Ep. 529: Annie Duke #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Annie Duke
Annie Duke

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Annie Duke is on the podcast for the second time. She is a poker player, author, decision making expert, and cognitive scientist. Her understanding of how luck, skill and uncertainty all play a role in life is fascinating.

Donald Trump has made some unusual cabinet choices, especially for getting elected by such a small margin. Annie breaks down her perspective on why Trump chose the way he did. One of the hardest people to play against is someone playing aggressively across the board, such as Trump. She relates Trump’s aggressive political playing to poker, giving insights as to how Trump opposition might be playing their cards to beat him.

Annie moves on to decipher luck and skill in decision making and outcomes. Black and white thinking can be harmful. Decisions that don’t go your way are not always the wrong choice. You may have taken the right direction, the cards just didn’t fall in your favor. You need to be able to move on and know that another chance is around the corner. Fixating on decisions that were wrong can easily start to snowball and make things personal. The key is to learn to move on from one hand dealt to another quickly because life won’t pause for anyone. Take the time to reflect later, but don’t get caught up in the moment and dwell on what mistakes you may, or may not have made.

The world of poker is a male driven sport. Focusing her purpose on winning the game rather than getting people at the table to like her enabled her to get over discrimination and actually use it to her advantage. Not caring about the approval of peers instantly gives the person being discriminated against the upper hand. Once you view something as a challenge rather than adversity you become a stronger person and begin creating a positive narrative for that situation and your life. Shying away from adversity is a way of giving up on yourself and falling victim. Facing adversity as a challenge provides self power and confidence.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Quality of outcome vs Quality of your decision
  • Game theory and math
  • Applying poker decision making to life decision making
  • Cognitive science

Mentions & Resources:

Want a FREE Trend Following DVD? Get it here.

Ep. 525: Martin Bergin Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following

Martin Bergin and Bill Dunn
Martin Bergin and Bill Dunn

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Martin “Marty” Bergin is the President and owner of DUNN Capital Management. Bergin began working with DUNN in 1997. He took over the day-to-day operations of the firm in 2007 and became owner in 2015 (Bill Dunn remains Chairman). DUNN has an outstanding track record that spans over 40 years. Bergin first met Dunn while he was tasked with doing an audit of the company over the course of 7 years. Once the audit was over, Dunn offered him a job.

There has been ongoing dialogue since 2008 that trend following has been a negative. DUNN Capital’s track record does not reflect that. They have been doing things different. They are 100% systematic. They do not have an army of traders staring at screens. All emotion has been removed from the equation and traders use algorithms that have already been put in place to make day to day trades. They take positions strictly based on what the system tells them to do.

Managed futures (read: trend following) was the only strategy that stood out during the 2008 crisis. Historically DUNN has been able to outperform the S&P over their 40 year track record. I argue that when looking at their performance side by side with S&P performance, there could be a whole class taught on the chart. Bergin says that with all the changes in America (mostly political) there is no telling if the new policy’s that are said to come will crash the S&P or double the S&P. He has no way to predict the future and neither does anyone else.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Management fees
  • How the financial industry works
  • Systematic trend following strategies
  • Trading off of price data
  • The advantages of diversity in your portfolio

“What has more information in it than price? It is the accumulation of all information in the marketplace, and that is all we trade.” – Marty Bergin

Mentions & Resources:

Want a FREE Trend Following DVD? Get it here.