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Ep. 231: Two Centuries of Trend Following with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Synopsis: Michael Covel discusses a white paper titled “Two Centuries of Trend Following”. Covel likes the fact that when he goes through their references, it’s all other academic white papers. Then, sandwiched in between the other white papers, “The Complete TurtleTrader” is referenced. Covel posted this on Twitter and received a response in which someone wanted to talk about the last couple of years of trend following performance. Trend following performance is going to differ depending on the trader, what’s in their portfolio, the type of system they’re trading, and the risk they’re taking. There isn’t some one magical elixir. Covel believes that you’re better off in the long-term trend following world, rather than in the short-term world. Still, the person Covel interacted with on Twitter was not concerned with the two centuries of trend following that the white paper talked about, but rather, “what have you done for me lately?” Covel moves on to talk about a recent monologue he did concerning a Yahoo Finance article in which he questioned the vocabulary of the talking heads. Covel looks at the responses to that episode, and then the larger view: Most people don’t have the foggiest clue what trading is; what Wall Street is. They’ve been listening to nonsense in the media. The lure is still out there. The buy and hold lure is still out there. But even worse is that “get rich quick” attitude. People don’t understand it as a science. Covel looks at at “The Wolf of Wall Street” and analyzes a segment from the movie. Covel uses it as an example of how most people view money-making and Wall Street. People don’t think like Covel’s podcast guests and writing subjects; they don’t think like Marty Bergin at Dunn Capital or Ed Seykota. This is what Covel is up against. He wants people to understand the science of trading. Covel also notes that his old newsletter system is being changed. If you want to continue to receive Covel’s newsletter, go to trendfollowing.com/subscribe-now. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

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Posted in Multimedia, Podcasts, Trading 101, Trend Following
4 comments on “Ep. 231: Two Centuries of Trend Following with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
  1. Paul C says:

    thank you Covel… amazing info

  2. Anand says:

    Thanks…Mike. Trend following as a strategy is really very consistent. It’s like a order in chaos.very true although, profits depend on individual trader.

  3. Jim Rohrbach says:

    Michael: There are millions of investors out there who saw as much as 50% of their portfolio drop in the last crash. They would love to prevent that from happening in the next crash. You and I should get together on this one. They need a mechanical system that tells them when the trend of the market changes direction. You know that my RIX Strategy has been identifying changes in the trend of the market for over 40 years. Timer Digest keeps ranking me on their Top Ten Timers List. Talk to me about a joint effort!!!
    Most investors try to look at the under components of the market and then predict where the market is going to go. They don’t seem to get it. They only thing the market gives us is a reading of what the market did, on a daily basis. Why don’t people work with that daily data and try to figure out when the trend changes? No, their focus is on trying to figure out (predict) where the market is going to go. That’s a “Fool’s Game”. Trend Following is two words. To me that means, identify the Trend and then Follow it. It doesn’t mean predict the future trend and become a Fool trying to follow it. Talk to me!!!!!

  4. Aaron says:

    Just incase anyone is looking for the WP

    http://arxiv.org/abs/1404.3274

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