Join 10,000+ savvy traders that get Michael's exclusive insights & podcast episodes.

as seen on:

Fascinating Insights From Nobel Prize-Winner Robert Shiller

Jim Byers passes along:

On why so many experts missed the 2008 financial crisis: “Experts have always missed big events like this. If you look at the record of statistical forecasting models, they tend to get to the recession when it’s starting to come. A casual observer might start to worry about it. Forecasting it years out, they don’t get; in particular, if you look at the Great Depression of the 1930s, nobody forecasted that. Zero. Nobody. Now there were, of course, some guys who were saying the stock market is overpriced and it would come down, but if you look at what they said, did that mean a depression is coming? A decade-long depression? That was never said.”

On short-term thinking: “I think that there’s too much faith in analysis of short-term data. You see some pattern, and you can do a statistical test and prove that will prove that it is significant or passes the smell test to a statistician. But the problem is, the world is always changing. It’s not a stable thing. The underlying human parameters may be stable, but you can see that there is institutional and cultural evolution, and it’s not something that you can quantify.”

Tagged with: , , , , , ,
Posted in Economics
Free Market Wizard Video!

Receive FREE expert trader video now!

Covel Books & Film
Massive Performance

Trend following performance numbers.

Trend Trading Systems

Pricing for trend following systems. 1000s of clients across 70+ countries.

Live Trend Following

Michael Covel's live events.

Trend Following Podcast

Michael Covel's podcast. 3M+ listens; 400+ episodes: iTunes & Android.

 

Free Market Wizard Video!

Receive FREE expert trader video now!

Online Payments

 

Regular guy makes Trend Following fortune. His free video lesson: Watch It Now.