Episode: Right & Wrong Answers

Synopsis: “Give me a talking head that says which way is up, and I’ll listen. Give me something I can believe in.” That’s what most people believe, even if it’s a fantasy. Michael Covel discusses what makes a good teacher, and brings up one quote in particular: “A good teacher is one who will not give you an answer, but will allow you to find the answer in yourself. A teacher is a guide. He or she will show you that the answer is inside you, and that there is a right answer.” Michael Covel discusses a John Hussman quote and explores “right” and “wrong” answers. Hussman’s comments are not about trading; trend followers don’t attempt to make the analysis that he does. Trend followers don’t analyze how poor Bernanke’s policies may or may not be; trend followers do not attempt to say whether Fed policies are good or bad. You don’t make money trying to make those judgments. Covel discusses some of the comments he received after posting the Hussman quote, noting some supportive Fed comments. Of course, none of these views are relevant to trend following trading. But as a human being–as a thinking person–Covel discusses some Fed policies. Covel’s point here is to get you to think: Do you just want to trust the system? With stock markets at all-time highs and interest rates low that everything is rosy and everyone has it figured out? With the S&P having collapsed 50% two times in the past fifteen years do you want to trust that it can’t happen again? Do you want to trust that the DOW really can’t go from 15,000 to 7,500? This is what Hussman is really getting at. Unlike a trend following trader Hussman is getting at why these machinations and maneuvers of the Fed really don’t last. The beast can’t be contained. So will you have a plan when all hell breaks loose? Nothing can contain market volatility; it always comes back. And sometimes markets don’t recover: look at Japan. Covel asks, “do you want to trust the system, or do you want to have control of your life to some degree?” Bottom line, you can make money when the central planning plans break down. Finally, Covel ends today’s show with a long clip from Hugh Hendry that gets at the issue of what capitalism is today. Do you want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.