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Episode: Risk, The Unexpected and Black Swans:

Michael Covel presents a series of great audio clips rather than his normal monologue or interview today on the podcast. Most of these are clips that Covel hasn’t played on a podcast before, and they all loosely connect around the idea of risk, the unexpected, and black swans. First up, Covel plays a clip from Warren Buffett talking about Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that almost took the system down in the summer of 1998 (a huge winning time for trend followers). Covel follows it up with two clips from David Harding of Winton Capital Management–one of the top trend following traders of all time–talking about the lack of data on history’s greatest manias, crashes and panics; a second clip of Harding talking about the difference between today’s crashes and panics and ones that have happened over the past century; author Peter Bernstein (whose book, “Against the Gods”, Covel calls a must-read book on risk); Dr. Vernon Smith, who appeared in Covel’s film, “Broke: The New American Dream”, talking to ReasonTV; Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan”. Finally, Covel ends with a clip of Ben Bernanke walking down the street. Somebody asks him about Nassim Taleb, the author of “The Black Swan”. You would think that after we’ve just listened to all of these pragmatic voices lay the foundation for why you have to know there’s always going to be another black swan to arrive, Bernanke completely dismisses it and says he doesn’t read Taleb’s work. Isn’t it good to know that Bernanke, the man who is control of the Fed, doesn’t even pay attention? All of these great voices that Covel has played today show how imperitive it is to prepare yourself for the next black swan; the next unknown event. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to http://www.trendfollowing.com/win.

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