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Episode: You Can’t Call The Top–The Podcast

Synopsis: Michael Covel has done a podcast on Apple before, but today’s podcast focuses on the media coverage surrounding people calling the top. Covel just saw an interesting article called “Following a Herd of Bulls on Apple” by James Stewart. Covel reads through the article and gives his commentary and notes that the premise of the article is disingenuous at best and dishonest at worst. The main subjects of Covel’s criticism are the people that they bring on to criticize the Wall Street analysts. Covel isn’t here to defend the Wall Street analysts–anyone that makes a buy or sell decision based on a report from a Wall Street analyst after looking at the last 20 years of Wall Street history isn’t doing their homework. The “funny” part of the article, Covel says, lies in the people who were quoted in the article–and the author. Jim Stewart has been around Wall Street for a long time. Did he just dial this piece in? Stewart knew it was impossible to predict Apple’s top. Yet, for this article, they find one guy out there who pegged the top. And we’re all supposed to look at this guy as some sort of miracle worker? You don’t pick the top. People who pick tops like Apple at 700 are lucky. It’s not a skill. If you can only find one guy to do it, you’ve found the lucky survivor, and Jim Stewart built the article around him. Covel saves the most ire for the professors quoted in the article. The men who teach that markets are efficient. The ones who have the basics of finance wrong and continue to push this nonsense to their students: “Markets are efficient”. The big scam is that the very people out there writing Wall Street research probably sat through that very professor’s class. Wall Street is populated with people who obtained this sort of education. One other thing Covel covers is momentum: a great way to have traded Apple is through a momentum trend following style. A momentum trend following style wouldn’t have had you getting in at the bottom or out at the top. All you can hope for is capturing the the middle meat of the trend. The trend following way doesn’t require you to be worried whether wall street analysts are right or wrong; doesn’t require you to be worried whether or not Jim Stewart had an agenda; or whether a Harvard university professor had conflicts of interest himself. Covel only brings it up to make a point and to sharpen the divide between these very different ways of looking at the world. On one side you have all the university nonsense; the efficient market hypothesis; Wall Street giving you buy/sell/hold decisions; and adulation for the one guy that picked the top. On the other side, you have the trend following traders who know that absolutely all of that is junk. Make your life simpler. Walk away from the nonsense and stick to the other side of that divide. Free DVD:

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Posted in Podcasts, Trend Following
One comment on “Episode: You Can’t Call The Top–The Podcast
  1. Jim Rohrbach says:

    Michael: If people would only listen to your Podcast with James Rohrbach, they would know precisely how to identify changes in the trend of Apple. No guessing. But then, it’s good that we do not have too many people following the same strategy.

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