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Episode: Richard Russell and Dow Theory

Synopsis: Michael Covel starts with an interesting blogpost from a reader quoting Dow theorist Richard Russell. Covel discusses his thoughts on Russell, noting that he saw him speak in San Diego and followed his writings some in 2009-10. Here’s the thing: Russell got it all wrong at the time. He was calling for the end of the world and the Dow has gone up–way up. Russell isn’t a trend following trader; he was using subjective discretionary technical views on what he thought the markets were doing, would do, and what the government or Fed might do or was doing wrong. Covel shares many of Russell’s views about the economy and the Fed; however, his way of thinking about the markets in 2009 and 2010 was the kind of predictive technical analysis that Covel has rallied so much against in recent podcast episodes. Bottom line, if the market’s up, you’re long; if the market’s down, you’re short. Trend following is not Elliott Wave, it’s not Dow Theory, it’s not Gann, it’s not anything Tom DeMark is describing. It’s price action based and that’s it. Covel goes onto discuss the gentleman’s blogpost in further detail, and notes how taking hold of data such as trading volume and confirming the Dow and transports together are almost fundamental-like in their approach. From a trend following perspective, all of this is irrelevant. The gentleman’s blogpost ends with the phrase the pressure in the market is building, and we may be watching the beginning of the most spectacular stock market blowoff ever. Just before an even more astonishing decline.” The operative phrase there is “may be”: if you hear a sentence like that, it’s not trend following. Covel goes on to discuss more local Malaysian food, Yoga, getting the tar beat out of him in a Thai massage, General Patton, and invites listeners to write in with questions about predictive vs. reactive technical analysis. Covel ends with a clip from famed basketball coach John Wooden at UCLA. He had a brilliant way about himself, inspired many, and Covel notes how Wooden got down into the nitty gritty in coaching–even teaching players how to properly put their socks on so they didn’t get blisters. Free DVD? www.trendfollowing.com/win.

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